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Market conditions and phases

Information is not investment advice

The market isn’t always the same. In order to choose the best trading strategy, you need to understand the market’s condition. There are two types of market conditions: a trend (a sustainable movement to the upside or to the downside) and a range (price fluctuations in a horizontal channel). 

It’s necessary to apply a strategy that fits the current condition of the market. If you use a trend trading strategy in a ranging market, you will likely lose money and, vice versa, if you use a range trading strategy, then you’ll lose money in trending markets. Always start your technical analysis with identifying the market’s condition, so that you could then pick an appropriate strategy.

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It’s important to understand the underlying logic of trends and ranges.  

First of all, keep in mind that the price moves as a result of supply and demand for the currencies which form a currency pair. If there are more buyers of the euro than those of the US dollar, EUR/USD will tend to rise. 

A price stays within a horizontal range when the powers of buyers and sellers are mostly equal. As usual, the market is in the situation of uncertainty: the majority of traders lack the information to join one of the camps. 

At some point, new information appears and either bulls or bears manage to break the range and start the directional movement of the price. If this movement is sustained, we get a trend. During a trend, there will definitely be periods of the so-called consolidations (i.e. ranges) and corrections (i.e. short counter-trend moves) as market participants take profit and re-adjust their positions. These shorter moves may provide opportunities for range trading on lower timeframes.   

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What will move the markets on September 20-24

Quadruple witching is gone and now there are no reasons for the market to hinder. From banks statements and economic data to gas storage reading and Fed’s Powell speech – get ready for active trading.

Strong US Retail Sales Pressed Gold

The US showed strong retail sales for August despite the spread of the Delta virus strain. As a result, the US dollar rocketed and gold dropped by 2286 points in half an hour after the release.

What to expect from Monthly Retail Sales data?

The United States will release MoM Retail Sales data on September 16, 15:30 GMT+3.

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