Will the CPI Crash the USD?
The most impactful releases of this week will fill the market with volatility and sharp movements.
USD/TRY: testing all-time highs
Information is not investment advice
Today, USD/TRY is peaking above 8.30 - that's the zone of the all-time highs!
The first time the Turkish lira dropped that much value was in November 2020. Back then, a new Turkish Central Bank governor was appointed to put it back onto a healthy course - and Naci Aqbal managed to do it countering double-digit inflation. Eventually, USD/TRY dropped below 7.00. However, unfortunately for the Turkish lira, Naci Aqbal had to leave his post in February - and the national currency of Turkey responded by losing value again.
Taking into account these constant staff changes in the highest ranks of the Turkish Central Bank, it's not a surprise that the national Turkish currency behaves in such an unstable manner. On top of that, see that, global investors are increasingly losing faith in the Turkish economy that is becoming less attractive for investment and hence propels the lira's depreciation.
One of the reasons for the current upswing of USD/TRY may be the announcement that Joe Biden may officially recognize the actions of the Ottoman Empire in 1915 towards the Armenian population as genocide - a move that will definitely strike hard at the US-Turkish relations, and the Turkish authorities already warned their American counterparts of that. In the meantime, this move may be considered as US warning to Turkey as well: so far, while being in the NATO, Turkey did not hesitate to purchase Russian arms raising questions - at least, on the American side - about the true nature of its intentions and loyalty to the military alliance.
In any case, the US-Turkish relations are becoming worse day by day, and that's pressing on the Turkish lira. If it continues like that, USD/TRY may well reach 9.00 in the nearest future.
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