Will the CPI Crash the USD?
The most impactful releases of this week will fill the market with volatility and sharp movements.
USD is at two-week low, gold rises
Information is not investment advice
What you need to know today:
- The International Monetary Fund upgraded its global growth forecast for the second time in three months as the economy recovers faster than expected! However, there’s a huge gap between advanced and less-developed economies. The global economy will expand 6% this year, up from the previous forecast of 5.5%.
- The five-year US Treasury yields dropped, weighing on the US dollar, which fell to the two-week low. However, today, the USD has slightly risen.
- Crude oil prices surged due to the overall optimism over global economic growth. Besides, crude inventories in the US declined in the last week, which is also positive for oil prices.
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Technical analysis
EUR/USD has approached the psychological mark of 1.1900. Technical indicators point to the soon reverse down: the RSI indicator rose above 70.00, the price is close to the upper line of Bollinger Bands, and on the daily chart there is the 200-day moving average just above the current price. Thus, the pair may fail to cross the resistance of 1.1900 and reverse down. Support levels are the 100-period moving average of 1.1830 and yesterday’s low of 1.1800.
AUD/USD is moving in a descending channel in the long term. Since it is close to the upper trend line, it’s likely to reverse down soon. If it breaks yesterday’s low of 0.7620, the way down to the next support of 0.7600 will be open. On the flip side, if bulls take control and drag the price above the intraday high of 0.7670, it may jump higher to the next resistance of 0.7700.
Gold is edging up and up. It has bounced off the 200-period moving average of $1755. Thus, the way up to the high of March 18 at $1755 is open. If it manages to break it, it may rally up further to the high of February 18 at $1790. In the opposite scenario, the move below the $1755 support will lead the yellow metal to the 100-period moving average of $1725.
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