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To Hike or Not to Hike?

To Hike or Not to Hike?

Information is not investment advice

To Hike or Not to Hike?

Bank of Canada (BOC) will make a statement on December 8, 17:00 GMT+2.

What is happening?

Bank of Canada (BOC) will make a statement on December 8, 17:00 GMT+2. A month and a half ago, BOC surprised investors by abruptly ending its bond-buying program and pulling forward its expected timeline for interest rate rises. As a result, there was a heavy sell-off in Canadian government debt. As for inflation, consumer prices in Canada rose at their fastest rate in 18 years in September 2021, as the country continued to grapple with global supply chain issues.

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The annual inflation rate hit 4.7% in October, its highest level since February 2003. It’s logical to hike rates to slow inflation. The Bank of Canada last month signaled it could start hiking rates as soon as April 2022.

Bank of Canada’s next move

Analysts expect BOC to leave the rates on current levels. If the bank doesn’t do something unexpected (hike rates), Loonie will remain weak and may experience a decrease against USD and JPY.

USD/CAD daily chart

Resistance: 1.2820; 1.2950

Support: 1.2550; 1.2450; 1.2310

USDCADDaily.png

How to trade on the BOC rate statement?

The main affected pairs are USD/CAD and CAD/JPY.

  • If the meeting is more hawkish than expected – CAD will rise, while USD and JPY will fall against it.
  • Otherwise – CAD will continue plunging.

Check the economic calendar

Instruments to trade: CAD/JPY, USD/CAD, CAD/CHF

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How Will US PMIs Affect the USD?

The US Markit will publish Flash Manufacturing and Flash Services PMIs (purchasing managers' indices) on June 23 at 16:45 GMT+3.

Will Fed Chair Powell Move the USD?

The Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify on the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee on June 22-23 at 17:00 GMT+3.

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