Will the CPI Crash the USD?
The most impactful releases of this week will fill the market with volatility and sharp movements.
Three Currencies to Watch This Week
Information is not investment advice
We prepared an outlook of major events of this week. Check it and be ready!
Canadian GDP
February 28, 15:30 GMT+2
Statistics Canada will release the monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) change on February 28, 15:30 GMT+2. It’s a change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services the economy produces.
Surprisingly enough, Canada managed to avoid recession. The country didn’t see a single negative monthly reading over the last 18 months. GDP rises a few every month gaining around 0.1%. We can’t say the reading will be lower this time. However, if it happens, the CAD will surely experience a hard time. The last release came as expected and caused CADJPY to rise by 1000 points.
- If GDP is higher than expected, the CAD may rise.
- Otherwise, the CAD will plunge.
Instruments to trade: USDCAD, CADJPY, EURCAD.
Australian CPI
March 1, 02:30 GMT+2
The Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) on March 1 at 14:30 GMT+2. It’s a change in the price of goods and services consumers purchase. Traders call it consumer-driven inflation.
The Reserve Bank of Australia failed to slow down inflation. Three out of four last releases turned out to be way above expectations. AUDUSD lost 14% in 2022. Therefore, the downturn may continue if the reading is higher than expected.
- If CPI is higher than expected, the AUD will plunge.
- Otherwise, the AUD may rise a little.
Instruments to trade: AUDUSD EURAUD, AUDNZD
US ISM Services PMI
March 3, 17:00 GMT+2
The US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) on March 3 at 17:00 GMT+2. It’s the result of a survey of 300 purchasing managers. ISM asks them to rate business conditions on a scale of 0 to 100. An above-50.0 reading means the economy is expanding. On the contrary, below-50.0 numbers show economic weakness.
It’s a leading indicator of economic health because businesses react quickly to market conditions. Thus, every time the reading affects EURUSD, XAUUSD, and GBPUSD. High numbers mean the economy is solid, and the Fed may tighten the monetary policy more, pushing the USD up.
- If the reading is above expectations, the USD will soar.
- Otherwise, the USD may slide lower.
Instruments to trade: EURUSD, XAUUSD, USDGBP.
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