USD/CHF and EUR/CHF rose to tactical highs. What's next?
The US jobless claims!
Information is not investment advice
The US unemployment claims are announced on Thursday at 15:30 MT time.
Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD
Since the second week of October, the number of initial jobless claims has never exceeded 800K in the US. The average values have been revolving around the channel of 750-780K throughout the latest weeks. On a large scale, there is a clear recovery path that the US labor market has been gradually following since the record peak of unemployed people in April. However, this is not what may move the USD in the short term: the market expectation is. Therefore, what you have to look for is whether the market will be “amused or not amused” with the actual number of initial jobless claims as compared to the expectation. If it is better than the forecast, the USD will get stronger. If not, the dollar may soften.
- If the data is better-than-thought, the USD will be boosted.
- Otherwise, it will fall.
Eurozone, France, and Germany will publish the flash services and manufacturing PMIs on February 19, from 10:15 to 11:00 MT time
Australia will publish the employment change and unemployment rate on February 18, at 02:30 MT time.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify today at 19:05 MT time. This event is crucial for traders as the tone of the speech may set the risk tone for the markets for the next two weeks.
Non-farm payrolls, the most awaited economic report, will be out on March 5 at 15:30 MT time.
BoA has tracked signs of the upcoming stock market sell-off. While more expensive and at-risk stocks are set to fall, value stocks should survive.