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May 2020 forex season trading

May 2020 forex season trading

Information is not investment advice

April seasonal patterns weren’t supposed to work, but somehow they did. Even a strong fundamental issue such as the global recession amid the coronavirus couldn’t overwhelm it. That’s why May seasonal patterns may work as well.

However, it’s better to combine seasonal trading with technical and fundamental analysis. All together they will help you to make a successful trade.

Risk-off currency pairs

There is a good proverb: “Sell in May and go away”. It seems that it’s true for all currencies this month except safe-haven ones such as USD, CHF and JPY that will remain strong. According to Bloomberg, the US dollar index increased in 8 of the past 9 months of May. On average it rose by 1.53% in May over the past decade. Also, CHF should perform greatly in May as it's the strongest month over the past decade for the franc against the US dollar. However, take into account that CHF has been fallen for last 3 years.

Risk-on currency pairs

AUD has recently showed the steady rise, but according to seasonal patterns it’s time to stop it as May is going to be a weak month for the aussie. The average May decline over the past ten years was 2.33%.

Euro

May will be the worst time for EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and EUR/CHF. EUR/USD was decreasing in 8 of the past 9 years. The average May decline was 1.76% over the past decade.

Pound

This month will be disappointing for GBP/USD as the US dollar will be more favorable for investors amid the economic uncertainty. However, EUR should perform worse than GBP, that’s why EUR/GBP can drop.

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USD Moves Weird Ahead of CPI

The United States will publish the Inflation Rate and Core Inflation Rate, also known as US CPI and Core CPI, on August 10 at 15:30 GMT+3.

The NFP Release: One More Punch for USD?

The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will release monthly average hourly earnings, non-farm employment change (NFP), and unemployment rate on August 5, 15:30 GMT+3.

The UK Speeds Up Tightening

The Bank of England (BoE) will share its Official Bank Rate and make a statement on monetary policy on August 4, 14:00 GMT+3.

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