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Markets after US retail sales

Markets after US retail sales

Information is not investment advice

Latest news:

  • The USA has revealed encouraging data! Retail Sales, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and Unemployment Claims – all they came out much better than expected! It has improved the market sentiment – S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 hit all-time highs, but the reaction of the US dollar was mixed. Today, the greenback has started the day on a positive footing.
  • China has published its GDP for the first quarter, which came exactly as expected: 18.3%. It was the fastest growth since records started!
  • The first week of the earnings season is coming to an end. Yesterday, Bank of America, PepsiCo, and Citigroup revealed better-than-expected earnings. Today, investors await Morgan Stanley’s report at 14:30 MT.
  • Oil is heading for the best week since early March amid the overall optimism about the stronger-than-expected recovery from the pandemic.

Tech analysis

Gold has broken through the key level of $1760! It retraced to it shortly, but it’s likely to be a natural sell-off ahead of the further rally up. Thus, it may reach the high of late February at $1790. If it crosses this level as well, it may jump to $1815! Support levels are the 50- and 100-period moving averages of $1745 and $1730.


EUR/USD is moving inside the ascending channel in the short term, but we shouldn’t forget that the overall trend is downward. As a rule, a pair is likely to reverse down after it touches the upper trend line. So, if the pair breaks through the 1.1960 support, it will fall further to the 50-period moving average of 1.1915. In the opposite scenario, it manages to cross the strong resistance area of 1.1990-1.2000, the way up to the next round number of 1.2050 will be open.


USD/JPY is moving inside the descending channel. It has bounced off the support of 108.65. If it manages to break the psychological mark of 109.00, the way up to the 200-period moving average of 109.10 and then to 109.25 will be open. Support levels are at recent lows of 108.65 and 108.40.




Will the Fed Surprise Investors?

The Federal Reserve will make a statement regarding the future monetary policy on Wednesday, June 15, at 21:00 MT time (GMT+3).


How Will US PMIs Affect the USD?

The US Markit will publish Flash Manufacturing and Flash Services PMIs (purchasing managers' indices) on June 23 at 16:45 GMT+3.

Will Fed Chair Powell Move the USD?

The Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify on the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee on June 22-23 at 17:00 GMT+3.

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