Important events on February 17-21
Information is not investment advice
Whether we want it or not, the outbreak of the so-called “Chinese virus” will continue to affect the risk sentiment in the markets. The new cases are reported every day, and, as this week showed us, the number of them may be quite unexpected. The major analytical institutions have already highlighted the negative impact of the outbreak on the global economy. Thus, the market remains sensitive to the news on this matter. The rise in new cases will result in the risk-off sentiment. In case of positive news (for example, an invention of a vaccine), we expect the risky mood across the markets to stabilize.
On the third day of the trading week, both Canada and Great Britain will publish their CPI. According to the forecasts, the monthly release of Canadian inflation will advance by 0.3%. As for the UK inflation, analysts are optimistic, too. The indicator is forecast to advance by 1.7%. Higher-than-expected figures will support the domestic currencies.
Insights into the Fed’s plans
The USD has been a great performing currency during the current week. Its further direction depends on important events and releases. Among them, the FOMC meeting minutes expected on Wednesday at 21:00 MT time has a high chance to affect the US currency. While the Fed announced its plans for the stable monetary policy during the previous meeting, at the same time it highlighted the interest in gearing up the inflation level to be closer to the bank’s target. If we see any dovish hints in the recording, the USD will weaken. On the other hand, if the Fed is hawkish, the USD will get stronger.
Australian job data
On Thursday, at 2:30 MT time, Australia will publish employment change and unemployment rate. Analysts anticipate employment change to advance by 10K jobs and the unemployment rate to reach 5.2%. Let’s see how coronavirus fears affected the employment levels for the closest China’s trade partner. If employment change is greater, and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, the AUD will rise.
The euro may move on Friday
The whole bunch of European PMI will provide trading opportunities on Friday. We will see the French services, German flash manufacturing, German flash services PMIs. Will the euro see the fresh lows next week?
The US-China trade war escalates
More tariffs were introduced
American housing market slumps
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The USD is awaiting the flash manufacturing PMI
The United States will publish its flash manufacturing PMI at 16:45 MT time on February 21.