Will the CPI Crash the USD?
The most impactful releases of this week will fill the market with volatility and sharp movements.
Employment data may make the USD volatile
Information is not investment advice
The US Non-farm payrolls, also known as NFP, will be published on April 3, at 15:30 MT time.
Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF
The indicator represents the change in the number of employed people during the previous month excluding the farming industry. Traders pay huge attention to it, as it makes the US dollar highly volatile after the release. It’s worth mentioning that it comes out at the same time with the level of average hourly earnings and the unemployment rate. In March, the level of non-farm payrolls greatly outperformed the forecasts with 273K (vs. 175K). The average hourly earnings came out in line with expectations of 0.3% and the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%. Despite such a positive release, the reaction of the USD was limited. The currency was already struggling with coronavirus fears. This time the situation may be completely different after the record-high unemployment claims last week. It increased the risks of this employment data coming out significantly lower than in the previous release. On the other hand, if non-farm employment change and average hourly earnings are higher and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, the USD will rise.
• If the actual levels of employment change and average hourly earnings are higher and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, the USD will rise;
• If the actual levels of employment change and average hourly earnings are lower and the unemployment rate is higher than the forecasts, the USD will fall.
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