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Can ECB Surprise Traders?

Can ECB Surprise Traders?

Information is not investment advice

What will happen?

The European central bank will announce the main refinancing rate and make a monetary policy statement at the ECB press conference on Thursday, June 9, at 14:45 MT. It happens eight times a year. The central bank will share the current interest rate details and give the overall economic outlook and inflation forecasts. In addition, the ECB may provide clues about future monetary policy.

How can EUR react?

At the last meeting, on April 14, there was nothing particularly negative in the ECB statement. In a press statement after the meeting, Christine Lagarde claimed that the eurozone was more vulnerable to the Russian-Ukrainian crisis than the US, and that’s why the ECB can’t guarantee growth. The forecast made by the ECB was more “stagflationary.” Thus, it isn’t clear if the faster risk hikes are coming due to rising consumption. It would be the most obvious positive outlook for the euro.

The previous meeting brought volatility to the EUR. After the announcement, EURGBP lost more than 200 points, and after the press conference, there were around 450 points down.


If you traded 1 lot at that time, you would have earned $604.

How to trade on the ECB meeting?

If the ECB statement is more hawkish than forecasted, EURUSD will likely rise. In a more dovish situation, EURUSD will likely fall.

Check the Economic Calendar.

Instruments to trade: EURUSD, EURCAD, EURGBP.


USD Moves Weird Ahead of CPI

The United States will publish the Inflation Rate and Core Inflation Rate, also known as US CPI and Core CPI, on August 10 at 15:30 GMT+3.


FED and BOE Make Another Attempt to Beat Inflation

The Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its Interest Rate Decision and make a statement about the future monetary policy on Wednesday, September 21, GMT+3. After the higher-than-expected inflation numbers published on September 13, there’s almost no doubt the Federal Reserve will come up with another 75-basis-point rate hike. However, surprised by the CPI numbers, several Fed members announced the possibility of a 100-basis-point rate hike on Wednesday.

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