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XAU/USD: is more upside possible?

XAU/USD: is more upside possible?

Information is not investment advice

XAU/USD remains in an uptrend. This week it rose above the key psychological level of 1,500. In the longer term, a break above 50% of the 2011-2015 decline at 1,481 has opened the way up to 1,585 (61.8% Fibo). 

There’s an inside bar pattern on D1 - a sign of consolidation. Usually, it’s considered that the most likely direction of a breakout after an inside bar is in line with the preceding trend. However, we should notice that gold is largely overbought and on many timeframes, the Awesome Oscillator doesn’t confirm the latest highs. If XAU/USD tries to break above 1,510 (recent high), be careful: the breakout may be false. In case of a false break and a failure to close above 1,510, it’s safe to sell gold.

Without a false breakout to the upside, the decline below 1,499 will likely cause the slide to the 1,493 area, where there’s support. A further fall below 1,490 will bring the price to 1.481. The price will be able to rise to 1,525 and higher only in case of a daily close above 1,510. 

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