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XAU/USD: a short-term trade
Information is not investment advice
Last week XAU/USD recovered 38.2% of the November decline. However, the advance of gold was limited by the declining 50-period MA on the H4: the price made two attempts to overcome this area and all of them failed. The price formed a lower high and the price action strongly resembles a “Head and Shoulders” pattern. The decline below $1,460 will open the way down to the $1,450 area, according to the size of the pattern. An advance above $1,468 is needed for buyers to return to power.
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates? Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee had previously ended the year 2022 with a 50bps hike, and an indication from Powell, the committee chairman, that the Fed could consider raising interest rates by 75bps in the course of the year 2023.
Western countries are trying to find other options for oil and gas supplies after a 10th package of sanctions, which will put more pressure on Russian oil and decrease global oil supply. Italy, for example, is in talks with Libya.
Last year was tough for the Japanese yen. USDJPY gained more than 30% over 2022, striking above 150 in October. While anticipation of slower Fed rate hikes pulled the pair below the 130 level at the start of 2023, the speculations over the destiny of BOJ’s yield control policy grabbed the attention of the Japanese assets in the middle of January. What lies ahead for traders of the Japanese yen?