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There is a possibility that this scenario may repeat itself. Investors' fears are not unfounded because September is the worst month for the index. According to the historical dynamics, S&P 500 (US500) has been declining in September by 0.65% over the past 38 years.
September S&P500 (US500) index performance since 1985.
Average change of the S&P 500 (US500) index during the past 36 years.
The Crypto market usually also has a rough time in September. Bitcoin lost 12.7% in September 2021, 17.4% in 2020, 17.5% in 2018, 21.4% in 2017 and 45.4% in 2015. The main cryptocurrency increased by 13.3% and 3.95% in 2016 and 2019, respectively.
However, the extrapolation of statistical data to the current situation makes little sense if it is not tied to the economic context.
Several factors confirm a possibility of a deeper correction:
US dollar index, H4
The RSI repeats the same pattern, which has also appeared twice in 5 previous months.
The H4 RSI goes to 84 -> RSI declines, while the price stays at the same level -> Another pump when RSI reaches 70 - 75 -> divergence appears -> deeper correction happens.
The US dollar index is already breaking above a recent high, and currently, the price is aiming at the 111.50 level.
US500, weekly
US500 keeps moving inside an inverted falling wedge. The price has formed a massive range between 3500 and 3650, and it seems like sellers are aiming for it. Moreover, the 200-week moving average, which always acts as the main support for the US500, also stands in this range. If the Fed increases the rate by 75-basis-points, the price will easily decline to this support, where we expect to see the overall market reversal.
In a call scheduled for January 25, 00:30 am GMT+2, Microsoft will publish the company's earnings for the final quarter of 2022 and comment on the results, projections, and outlook for the nearest future of the company.
In a call scheduled for January 25, 00:30 am GMT+2, the Tesla Inc. team will publish the company's earnings for the final quarter of 2022 and comment on the results, projections, and outlook for the nearest future of the company.
The Netflix stock (NFLX), with a market cap of $145.17B and a whooping 10 000+% rise since its inception 16 years ago, experienced some turbulence for a short period last year while trading around the $250 share price. However, the NFLX stock quickly recovered and rose to over $300 towards the end of the previous quarter of 2022.
Last year was tough for the Japanese yen. USDJPY gained more than 30% over 2022, striking above 150 in October. While anticipation of slower Fed rate hikes pulled the pair below the 130 level at the start of 2023, the speculations over the destiny of BOJ’s yield control policy grabbed the attention of the Japanese assets in the middle of January. What lies ahead for traders of the Japanese yen?
Today, at 5:00 pm (GMT +2), the Bank of Canada will publish the Overnight Rate, which represents short-term interest rates, and is pivotal to the overall pricing of the Canadian Dollar in the global markets. Let's look at how the markets are faring ahead of the BoC rates release.
In a call scheduled for January 25, 00:30 am GMT+2, Microsoft will publish the company's earnings for the final quarter of 2022 and comment on the results, projections, and outlook for the nearest future of the company.
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