Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar!

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What to Trade on July 11-15?

What to Trade on July 11-15?

Information is not investment advice

Last week was shocking! 

The US dollar gained more than 2.5% against other currencies ahead of the NFP statement on Friday. As a result, EURUSD plunged to the 20-year low at 1.0100. The US stock market keeps retesting the global ascending channel from below. As a result, US500 and US100 are still trading below the 50-day moving average. The oil market lost around 10%. XBRUSD dropped to $98.00 support and bounced back to $102.00 by the end of the week.

Trade ideas

Forex

The head of the Bank of England, Bailey, will give his speech about the monetary policy on Tuesday, July 12. GBPUSD is trading around a historic low of 1.1920. If Mr. Bailey gives any hawkish hints regarding the monetary policy, the pair might return above 1.2200. However, we believe that the US dollar strengthening will press the pair to 1.1680 first. 

On Wednesday, July 13, investors and traders will be looking at the US CPI data, the main driver of the markets in 2022. The inflation in the United States positively correlates with the oil market, which has been cooling down since June. However, if the inflation is higher than expected, EURUSD will go to 0.9600.

Also, on Wednesday, the Bank of Canada will make its monetary policy report. The markets expect to see a 50-basis-points rate hike. That might pressure the USDCAD currency pair trading under the global resistance line. We expect the pair to head towards 1.2650 support after in the middle term.  

EURUSDMonthly.png

Stocks 

The US stock market made a solid bounce. However, US500 is still trading under 4000, meaning the downtrend isn’t over yet. The traders should observe this level and open buy trades in case of the breakout. Otherwise, US500 might keep going down with the target at 3500. For US100, the critical resistance is 12 700, and the primary support remains at 11 000. 

HK50 broke out of the ascending channel. When the price breaks below the 100-day moving average, it will head to the 20 000 support.  

US500Weekly.png

Oil, gas & metals 

XBRUSD was trading at around 100.00 by the end of the last week. The price is heading to the 200-day moving average at 96.00. At the same time, XTIUSD is heading towards the support level at 92.50, which also matches the 200-day moving average. Traders might look for buy trades around these support levels.

XAUUSD dropped hard. The price is heading towards the 1690 global support, and it seems like buyers won’t enter the game until then.

 XAUUSDWeekly.png

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