Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar!

Data Collection Notice

We maintain a record of your data to run this website. By clicking the button, you agree to our Privacy Policy.

facebook logo with graphic

Join Us on Facebook

Stay on top of company updates, trading news, and so much more!

Thanks, I already follow your page!
forex book graphic

Beginner Forex Book

Your ultimate guide through the world of trading.

Get Forex Book

Check Your Inbox!

In our email, you will find the Forex 101 book. Just tap the button to get it!

FBS Mobile Personal Area

market's logo FREE - On the App Store

Get

Risk warning: ᏟᖴᎠs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage.

76.5% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading ᏟᖴᎠs with this provider.

You should consider whether you understand how ᏟᖴᎠs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

What awaits the USD?

What awaits the USD?

Information is not investment advice

These days everyone is racking brains trying to foresee the future path of the US dollar. This isn’t an easy task. Unlike last year, when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates 4 times and the greenback outperformed, this year the Fed is expected to cut the federal funds rate. However, analysts are far from consensus about how big these cuts may be. As a result, forecasting gets harder than ever. In this article, we have gathered the main things you need to know about the US central bank and the USD. 

The United States vs. China

The fear regarding the US-Sino trade war has diminished after the Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping met at G20 summit last weekend and made a truce. While the immediate threat of more tariffs from both sides has gone away, the fundamental issues remain unresolved. 

On the one hand, the existing risks support demand for the USD as a safe haven. On the other hand, they increase the odds of rate cuts in the United States and limit the strength of the American currency. Ultimately, the influence trade risks and fears have on the USD will depend on the US economic data: good figures will make the greenback strengthen even during the periods of risk aversion, while soft releases will make it underperform.

Donald Trump wants a weaker USD

The US President argues that interest rates in America should be lower. During the past week, he accused Europe and China of currency manipulations saying that their central banks depreciate national currencies and that the United States should do the same. 

If the USD goes up fast and by much, we’ll expect other verbal and even actual interventions from the White House. The purpose of the weaker dollar for Trump is to get more money from American exports. 

The impact of the jobs report

According to the Nonfarm Payrolls figures released on Friday, the US economy added 224K jobs in June. That’s much more than the expected number of 162K and the gain of 72K seen in May. The release made the USD strengthen versus other major currencies as investors’ fear of the upcoming recession eased. 

At the same time, we can’t ignore the fact that wage growth missed estimates (0.2% vs. 0.3%) and the unemployment rate rose from 3.6% to 3.7%. As a result, to support the future job creation and prolong the positive economic cycle, the Fed will likely still need to reduce rate. 

Still, while earlier the market was talking about the possibility of the 50-bps cut on July 31, now the common opinion is that the Fed will reduce its rate only by 25 basis points. The picture below shows that futures on the federal funds rate now price in a 95.1% chance that the rate will be reduced from the current range of 2.25-2.5% to 2.00-2.25% at the end of this month. 

fed.png

Events to watch  

July 9, 11 - Speeches of Fed Chair Powell 

July 10 - FOMC Meeting Minutes

July 11 - US CPI

July 12 - US PPI

July 16 - US Retail Sales

July 25 - US Durable Goods Orders

July 26 - Advance GDP

July 31 - Fed’s Meeting

Conclusion

As you can see, every week will bring some key news for the USD. All in all, the fact that the market is ready for a rate cut limits the further downside for the USD. The currency has all chances to remain strong versus the EUR and the GBP. At the same time, the position of Donald Trump will likely prevent the greenback from significant appreciation either. Bear this in mind when you make your trade decisions!

Similar

How to Stay Calm and Trade on Uncertainties

Despite the negative news and worrying headlines, we recommend traders to make mental reframing of the situation. This way, you can look at the market from a different perspective. Let’s observe how you can take advantage of the uncertainties and make the fundamentals work for you!

Popular

Gold isn't saving investors from inflation

Many investors treated gold as a protection against inflation. However, last week, gold lost its major support and dropped despite rising inflation. Why did it act like this?

Bitcoin Skyrockets Ahead of ETH Merge and US CPI Release

First, "ETH merge" Google requests are on the rise. At the same time, "buy ETH" requests are at their two-year lows, which is quite a negative factor ahead of the vast update. The community either doesn’t believe in the success, or they are following the "buy the rumors – sell the news" rule and waiting for the massive dump after the merge.

Choose your payment system

Feel the Team Spirit

Callback

Please fill in the form below so we can contact you

Select the best time for us to call you. We give calls from Monday to Friday in suggested intervals. In case we couldn't get through, we will try again at the same time the next day. For getting real-time assistance, use FBS chat.

We provide only English-speaking callbacks. If you prefer any other languages, contact the support team.

We will call you at the time interval that you chose

Change number

Your request is accepted.

We will call you at the time interval that you chose

Next callback request for this phone number will be available in 00:30:00

If you have an urgent issue please contact us via
Live chat

Internal error. Please try again later