
The G20 summit took place in Bali, Indonesia, on November 2022…
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Recently, a new Turkish Central Bank Governor was appointed: Sahap Kavcioglu. He will start his duties as the Turkish lira is almost as cheap as ever - only recently, USD/TRY ceded from the once-again-reached all-time highs of 8.5.
The inflation is very high in Turkey - it was %16.2 in March. That'll be the main focus of the newly appointed governor's speech today. He will advise how the Turkish Central Bank will manage inflation with the interest rate, and that'll shed light on the possible future of USD/TRY.
Essentially, one of the core factors of the instability in the monetary policy in Turkey is that its President Recep Tayyip Erdogan believes that higher interest rates lead to more inflation than before - that goes against the traditional view that hawkish moves limit inflationary dynamics in the economy.
Sahap Kavcioglu goes hawkish; also, his plan makes economic sense in the eyes of international observers; the Turkish Central Bank is expected to gain credibility and the Turkish lira starts rising in value again: USD/TRY will go down so you sell.
Sahap Kavcioglu fails to share a formidable plan to fight off inflation and continues with the dovish line preferred by the Turkish President; USD/TRY is likely to go up as the lira will lose value: in this scenario, the all-time high resistance of 8.50 may be broken os you buy USD/TRY.
The G20 summit took place in Bali, Indonesia, on November 2022…
The deafening news shocked the whole world yesterday: the British Queen Elizabeth II died peacefully at the age of 96…
After months of pressure from the White House, Saudi Arabia relented and agreed with other OPEC+ members to increase production.
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates? Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee had previously ended the year 2022 with a 50bps hike, and an indication from Powell, the committee chairman, that the Fed could consider raising interest rates by 75bps in the course of the year 2023.
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