The G20 summit took place in Bali, Indonesia, on November 2022…
USD/TRY surged to record high
Information is not investment advice
USD/TRY continues moving upwards after breaking the all-time high of 7.50. Does it have more room to keep rallying? Let’s find out.
The credit rating agency Moody downgraded Turkey’s debt rating to junk. Besides, Moody gave a considerably negative prognosis on the Turkish lira itself and cautioned about the risk of crisis in the country’s balance of payments, which in turn will negatively impact the currency.
However, it’s not all about Turkey in this case as most emerging currencies are loosening this time against the US dollar amid the overall risk-off sentiment on the market. The market sentiment deteriorated after the Fed’s comment on the uncertain economic recovery ahead. As a result, safe-haven currencies such as the US dollar and the Japanese yen were pushed to the upside, while riskier assets were pressed down.
Nevertheless, the Minister of Trade for Turkey, emphasized that Turkey’s economy managed to outrun its peers amid the global pandemic in terms of exports. The Turkish output turned out $12.4 billion in August despite problems with international trade such as difficulties with logistics, border crossing and reduced demand. Anyway, the pair will mainly be driven by the USD’s performance and the overall market sentiment.
USD/TRY has been stuck between two trendlines since the beginning of August. Today, it has finally broken down the upper trendline and surged to the fresh highs above7.50. The move above the next round number at 7.55 will drive the pair to the key psychological mark of 7.60. In the opposite scenario, if it falls below yesterday’s low of 7.48, the way towards the support of 7.45 will be clear.
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This week, there are a few high-probability trade ideas I'd like to recommend to you. Trading these setups, be sure to implement a proper risk management approach.
On Thursday, the 2nd of February, the Bank of England will publish its report concerning interest rates and inflation data for the Eurozone. Professionals and investors anticipate that Andrew Bailey’s lead team of policy makers will likely raise interest rates to 4%; the highest in over a decade, for the tenth time in a row.
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates? Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee had previously ended the year 2022 with a 50bps hike, and an indication from Powell, the committee chairman, that the Fed could consider raising interest rates by 75bps in the course of the year 2023.