
The G20 summit took place in Bali, Indonesia, on November 2022…
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The Turkish lira has been pressed by Turkey’s central bank (CBRT). It has recently announced a bigger-than-expected rate cut: twice as deep as analysts expected. The reduction occurred after President Erdogan fired central bank officials as opposed to his intention for lower borrowing rates. Most analysts and investment banks foresee USD/TRY to exceed the psychological mark of 10.00.
Bloomberg said, “there’s now a more than 60% chance that the lira will weaken to 10 before January”. SEB AB: “Unless the central bank signals an intention to slow the cuts, USD/TRY will spike well above 10.00”.Besides, today, the Turkish lira got another headwind from President Erdogan. He claimed he had ordered the expulsion of the US and Western ambassadors.
Though lower rates can support some businesses and consumers, economists believe it also pushes the already high inflation up which can soon make the central bank change track. Actually, Turkey is alone in cutting interest rates. Other central banks all over the world are raising rates to decrease rising global price pressures.
USD/TRY has become overbought and reversed down. The pair may drop to Friday’s low of 9.59. If it manages to fall below this support level, the doors will be open to the psychological level of 9.50. The long term remains bullish. Thus, after a short pullback, it should stick to its uptrend and reach 10.00 as many analysts forecast now.
The G20 summit took place in Bali, Indonesia, on November 2022…
The deafening news shocked the whole world yesterday: the British Queen Elizabeth II died peacefully at the age of 96…
After months of pressure from the White House, Saudi Arabia relented and agreed with other OPEC+ members to increase production.
On Thursday, the 2nd of February, the Bank of England will publish its report concerning interest rates and inflation data for the Eurozone. Professionals and investors anticipate that Andrew Bailey’s lead team of policy makers will likely raise interest rates to 4%; the highest in over a decade, for the tenth time in a row.
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates? Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee had previously ended the year 2022 with a 50bps hike, and an indication from Powell, the committee chairman, that the Fed could consider raising interest rates by 75bps in the course of the year 2023.
Western countries are trying to find other options for oil and gas supplies after a 10th package of sanctions, which will put more pressure on Russian oil and decrease global oil supply. Italy, for example, is in talks with Libya.
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