
The G20 summit took place in Bali, Indonesia, on November 2022…
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“There is no standalone bill without a bigger bill”, - said recently Nancy Pelosi, the US White House Speaker from the Democrats camp. They want a nation-wide all-inclusive big stimulus to fight off the second wave of the COVID-19. Specifically, they want $2.4 Trillion dollars for that. In the meantime, Donald Trump’s Republicans offered a $1.6-trillion stimulus for airlines and small businesses - that was rejected by the Democrats. So he walked away from the negotiations postponing them to November once he – hopefully wins. In any case, the very fact of this discussion means that US authorities are having another stimulus on their agenda. Whether a new stimulus gets approved or not (more probably not, as Donald Trump shut down negotiations on it) – let’s analyze how that affects the world economy and your way to trade it.
Stimulus basically means more money printed and injected into the economy. More money circulating in the economy means higher inflation. At the same time, more money in the economy means financial capabilities and maneuvers for businesses that start expanding as well – that is economic growth. So inflation plus economic growth both boosted by the stimulus is a situation of reflation. As usual, when everything goes well in the case of economic expansion, the market is optimistic, the risk is on, stocks rise, the USD falls. That would be your reflation trading in this scenario.
Hence, with the USD, you would be betting on the bullish direction in EUR/USD. Specifically, you would be looking at 1.19 and 1.20 as potential targets of the reflation trade. Whether it will take place – we are yet to discover.
The G20 summit took place in Bali, Indonesia, on November 2022…
The deafening news shocked the whole world yesterday: the British Queen Elizabeth II died peacefully at the age of 96…
After months of pressure from the White House, Saudi Arabia relented and agreed with other OPEC+ members to increase production.
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates? Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee had previously ended the year 2022 with a 50bps hike, and an indication from Powell, the committee chairman, that the Fed could consider raising interest rates by 75bps in the course of the year 2023.
Western countries are trying to find other options for oil and gas supplies after a 10th package of sanctions, which will put more pressure on Russian oil and decrease global oil supply. Italy, for example, is in talks with Libya.
Last year was tough for the Japanese yen. USDJPY gained more than 30% over 2022, striking above 150 in October. While anticipation of slower Fed rate hikes pulled the pair below the 130 level at the start of 2023, the speculations over the destiny of BOJ’s yield control policy grabbed the attention of the Japanese assets in the middle of January. What lies ahead for traders of the Japanese yen?
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