What happened? Brent returned to the rising channel on Wednesday by gaining 4% during the trading session…
USD: pushed by uncertainty
Information is not investment advice
On the one side, we have a clear fundamental factor: political opposition in the US has become considerably tense. The so-far-US-President Donald Trump is facing the possibility of impeachment. Riots get to the point of breaking into the Capitol.
On the other side, we have a clear technical observation: the USD has significantly gained. Do these two have a causal link? Pretty much. The end of the last week was when things started going of control in the Capitol; that’s exactly when the US dollar started taking over its peers in Forex and getting stronger.
Therefore, we have to assume that once the situation is back to normal or loses tension in the US, the USD should get back to the softer side. Here is the layout.
This currency pair was on the way to 1.2350 when riots broke out in the streets. The plunge was imminent, and currently, the pair trades at 1.2150. It’s the three-week resistance formed by the low of December 22. It will likely bounce upwards or stay consolidated at this level if things don’t get worse.
Against the Japanese yen, the US dollar went as high as 104.00. Currently, it stays there. However, even if the fundamental background favors the same upward trajectory, technical correction down to 103.60 or above seems a plausible expectation.
The British pound did not resist the USD’s appreciation. It lefts the heights of 1.3630 and descended below 1.35. Technically, 1.34 is the center of gravity here. Therefore, after a brief consolidation at the current level, GBP/USD may well go down there if the fundamental background stays as controversial as it is now in the US. 1.3440 would be the intermediate support level to be checked by bears in the downward scenario.
What will happen? The European Central Bank will present the monetary policy statement on June 22…
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