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USD/JPY: potential harmonic pattern
Information is not investment advice
USD/JPY is forming on the H1 what looks like a bearish “Butterfly” pattern. The pattern will allow the pair to rise to the 107.50/60 area (limited by the 100-day MA and 100-period MA on the H4). There’s also an obstacle in the form of the 200-period MA on the H4 at 107.40. After the advance to the mentioned levels, the pattern should trigger a decline to the 107.05/00 zone. Trading the pattern should involve some on-the-spot decision making: if you see the signs of reversal near 107.60, you can sell there. If the pair gets above 107.40 and then returns below it, it will mean that the upside is over and a short-term decline has started, so once again you will be able to open a short position. The rise above 107.70 is needed to open the way up to 108.00/50.
On Thursday, the 2nd of February, the Bank of England will publish its report concerning interest rates and inflation data for the Eurozone. Professionals and investors anticipate that Andrew Bailey’s lead team of policy makers will likely raise interest rates to 4%; the highest in over a decade, for the tenth time in a row.
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates? Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee had previously ended the year 2022 with a 50bps hike, and an indication from Powell, the committee chairman, that the Fed could consider raising interest rates by 75bps in the course of the year 2023.
Western countries are trying to find other options for oil and gas supplies after a 10th package of sanctions, which will put more pressure on Russian oil and decrease global oil supply. Italy, for example, is in talks with Libya.