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USD/JPY: levels to trade
Information is not investment advice
The USD is going to be volatile on Friday, September 6, as America will release Nonfarm Payrolls data at 15:30 MT time. USD/JPY is a currency pair that traditionally reacts strongly to this release. The pair is now consolidating ahead of the news. On the upside, it ran into the resistance of the declining 50-day MA in the 107.15 area after initially spiking to 107.23 yesterday. As a result, we need to see an advance above 107.25 on strong NFP to trigger buy trades. In this case, the targets will be at 107.50 and 107.80. All in all, the bullish scenario seems more likely than the bearish one as USD/JPY closed at the highest level since the beginning of August on Thursday. At the same time, the decline below 106.70 (200-period MA on H4) will renounce the upside and make the pair slide to 106.25.
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates? Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee had previously ended the year 2022 with a 50bps hike, and an indication from Powell, the committee chairman, that the Fed could consider raising interest rates by 75bps in the course of the year 2023.
Western countries are trying to find other options for oil and gas supplies after a 10th package of sanctions, which will put more pressure on Russian oil and decrease global oil supply. Italy, for example, is in talks with Libya.
Last year was tough for the Japanese yen. USDJPY gained more than 30% over 2022, striking above 150 in October. While anticipation of slower Fed rate hikes pulled the pair below the 130 level at the start of 2023, the speculations over the destiny of BOJ’s yield control policy grabbed the attention of the Japanese assets in the middle of January. What lies ahead for traders of the Japanese yen?