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USD/JPY at three months highs. Is it poised for an extended breakout?

USD/JPY at three months highs. Is it poised for an extended breakout?

Information is not investment advice

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Ichimoku Kinko Hyo

EUR/JPY: The pair is trading above the cloud. An upward pressure would lead the pair to exit further the cloud, confirming a bullish outlook.

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Fibonacci Levels

 XAU/USD: Gold bulls react recently and send price above 61.8% retracement area.

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EU Market View

Stocks made a meandering start to the second half of 2021 on Thursday, dipping in Asia on worries about new coronavirus infections and fresh lockdowns, while bond markets were on edge and the dollar crept higher ahead of U.S. labour data. In China, equities cheered the centenary of the Communist Party with a small rise, but a nationalist address from President Xi Jinping in Tiananmen Square did little to soothe geopolitical nerves and the yuan weakened very slightly.

Data in Asia also painted a mixed picture, with Japanese manufacturers' mood at a two-and-a-half year high, but factory activity slowing down through the region - particularly in Vietnam and Malaysia - on a resurgent pandemic. In Asia, the likes of Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand have introduced new curbs to battle Covid-19 outbreaks, while in Europe the tourist season has been disrupted as Spain, Portugal and Greece restrict British travelers, given the rising number of cases in the U.K. A French government advisor, Jean-Francois Delfraissy, said on Thursday that it is already "too late" to stop the variant spreading in France, but said that the wave of Covid cases that he expects from Delta won't be as severe as previous ones.

The dollar consolidated around multi-month highs against its major peers as traders await Friday’s key employment report for clues about future Federal Reserve policy. U.S. private payrolls beat expectations overnight, although they are an unreliable guide to Friday's broader indicators. The ADP report is a widely-watched precursor to Friday’s official U.S. NFP release, although the relationship between the two hasn't been as tight as usual since the pandemic began.  But it is the official labor market report that carries more weight with the Fed.  Economists polled by Reuters expect a gain of 700,000 jobs for June, up from 559,000 in May. But variation among the 63 estimates is big, ranging from 376,000 to more than a million.

EU Key Point

  • Heads up: ECB president Lagarde due to speak at the top of the hour.
  • Eurostoxx futures +0.4% in early European trading.
  • Germany May retail sales +4.2% vs +5.0% m/m expected.
  • EUR/USD falls through post-FOMC low as the dollar firms further on the week.
  • Japan chief cabinet secretary Kato says weighing up an additional stimulus package.
  • China Caixin/Markit Manufacturing PMI for June 51.3 (expected 51.8).
  • Australia coronavirus - Sydney is struggling to dampen new case growth.
  • Australian May month exports jump 6% vs 3% in April.
  • UK Times government is planning quarantine-free travel for the double-vaccinated by July 26.
  • Japan - Jibun Bank/Markit Manufacturing PMI (final) for June: 52.4 (prior 53.0).

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