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USD gains after a solid NFP number

USD gains after a solid NFP number

Information is not investment advice





Ichimoku Kinko Hyo

EUR/JPY: The pair is trading below the cloud. A downward pressure would lead the pair to exit further the cloud, confirming a bearish outlook.


Fibonacci Levels

 XAG/USD: Silver the last day shows some move lower and is trading between 23.6% and 38.2% retracement area.  


EU Market View

Asian equities traded cautiously as the initial tailwinds from last week’s US jobs report eventually faded amid softer than expected Chinese trade data. Asian shares turned sluggish on Monday as relief over a benign U.S. jobs report was chilled by caution ahead of key inflation data, while a coronavirus outbreak in Taiwan took an increasing toll on hard-pressed chip makers.The dollar traded marginally higher early in Europe Monday after the softer-than-expected payrolls release, with traders turning their attention towards this week’s inflation figures. Friday’s U.S. NFP release showed an increase of 559,000 last month after a revised 278,000 gain in April, a touch below the 650,000 expected. While this still indicates a robust recovery in the U.S. labor market, the fact that the number missed expectations is likely to cool the pressure on the Federal Reserve to rein in its ultra-easy monetary policies, providing the central bank an excuse to defer the tapering debate a little longer. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that President Joe Biden's $4 trillion spending plan would be good for the U.S., even if it contributes to rising inflation and results in higher interest rates, Bloomberg News reported. "If we ended up with a slightly higher interest rate environment it would actually be a plus for society's point of view and the Fed's point of view," Yellen said in an interview with the outlet on Sunday.

 Oil pulled back after hitting fresh multi-year highs on Monday, as investors awaited the outcome of this week's talks between Iran and world powers over a nuclear deal that is expected to boost crude supplies. Global oil demand is expected to exceed supplies in the second half despite a gradual easing of supply cuts by OPEC+ producers, analysts say.A slowdown in talks between Iran and global powers in reviving a 2015 nuclear deal and a drop in U.S. rig count also supported oil prices. Iran and global powers will enter a fifth round of talks on June 10 in Vienna that could include Washington lifting economic sanctions on Iranian oil exports.



EU Key Point

  • Germany April factory orders -0.2% vs +0.5% m/m expected.
  • Japan April preliminary leading indicator index 103.0 vs 102.9 expected.
  • Japan's Nishimura: Government will work with BOJ to revive economy, avoid deflation.
  • Germany reports 1,117 new coronavirus cases, 22 deaths in latest update today.
  • Moody's says China seeing a strong rebound, but risks are rising.
  • Japan's draft fiscal blueprint: wants to prevent deflation, fiscal reform, hit 2% BOJ target.
  • Russian President Putin says will further deepen cooperation with China.
  • S&P have affirmed Australia rating at 'AAA', outlook revised to stable.
  • China says it expects to have at least 70% of population vaccinated by December.
  • Japan wage growth seen at slowest since the aftermath of GFC after spring wage agreement.
  • G7 Finance Ministers reached an agreement to commit to a global minimum tax of 15%.



Can a recession be avoided? 

The pandemic continues hurting economic activity in China, the war in Ukraine is hitting the entire European economy, and the Fed's efforts to control inflation threaten to trigger a recession. 

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