Equity markets climbed in Europe yesterday
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo CNH/JPY: The CNH/JPY pair is trading above the Kumo…
USD gains after a solid NFP number
Information is not investment advice
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo
EUR/JPY: The pair is trading below the cloud. A downward pressure would lead the pair to exit further the cloud, confirming a bearish outlook.
Fibonacci Levels
XAG/USD: Silver the last day shows some move lower and is trading between 23.6% and 38.2% retracement area.
EU Market View
Asian equities traded cautiously as the initial tailwinds from last week’s US jobs report eventually faded amid softer than expected Chinese trade data. Asian shares turned sluggish on Monday as relief over a benign U.S. jobs report was chilled by caution ahead of key inflation data, while a coronavirus outbreak in Taiwan took an increasing toll on hard-pressed chip makers.The dollar traded marginally higher early in Europe Monday after the softer-than-expected payrolls release, with traders turning their attention towards this week’s inflation figures. Friday’s U.S. NFP release showed an increase of 559,000 last month after a revised 278,000 gain in April, a touch below the 650,000 expected. While this still indicates a robust recovery in the U.S. labor market, the fact that the number missed expectations is likely to cool the pressure on the Federal Reserve to rein in its ultra-easy monetary policies, providing the central bank an excuse to defer the tapering debate a little longer. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that President Joe Biden's $4 trillion spending plan would be good for the U.S., even if it contributes to rising inflation and results in higher interest rates, Bloomberg News reported. "If we ended up with a slightly higher interest rate environment it would actually be a plus for society's point of view and the Fed's point of view," Yellen said in an interview with the outlet on Sunday.
Oil pulled back after hitting fresh multi-year highs on Monday, as investors awaited the outcome of this week's talks between Iran and world powers over a nuclear deal that is expected to boost crude supplies. Global oil demand is expected to exceed supplies in the second half despite a gradual easing of supply cuts by OPEC+ producers, analysts say.A slowdown in talks between Iran and global powers in reviving a 2015 nuclear deal and a drop in U.S. rig count also supported oil prices. Iran and global powers will enter a fifth round of talks on June 10 in Vienna that could include Washington lifting economic sanctions on Iranian oil exports.
EU Key Point
- Germany April factory orders -0.2% vs +0.5% m/m expected.
- Japan April preliminary leading indicator index 103.0 vs 102.9 expected.
- Japan's Nishimura: Government will work with BOJ to revive economy, avoid deflation.
- Germany reports 1,117 new coronavirus cases, 22 deaths in latest update today.
- Moody's says China seeing a strong rebound, but risks are rising.
- Japan's draft fiscal blueprint: wants to prevent deflation, fiscal reform, hit 2% BOJ target.
- Russian President Putin says will further deepen cooperation with China.
- S&P have affirmed Australia rating at 'AAA', outlook revised to stable.
- China says it expects to have at least 70% of population vaccinated by December.
- Japan wage growth seen at slowest since the aftermath of GFC after spring wage agreement.
- G7 Finance Ministers reached an agreement to commit to a global minimum tax of 15%.
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Brutal session in the equity markets yesterday
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY pair is now trading within the Kumo…
The U.S. economy added 390,000 jobs in May
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair is now trading above the Kumo…
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European Currencies Ahead of the Banks' Statements
On Thursday, the 2nd of February, the Bank of England will publish its report concerning interest rates and inflation data for the Eurozone. Professionals and investors anticipate that Andrew Bailey’s lead team of policy makers will likely raise interest rates to 4%; the highest in over a decade, for the tenth time in a row.
Will the FOMC Surprise the Markets?
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates? Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee had previously ended the year 2022 with a 50bps hike, and an indication from Powell, the committee chairman, that the Fed could consider raising interest rates by 75bps in the course of the year 2023.
What awaits the Oil Market in February?
Western countries are trying to find other options for oil and gas supplies after a 10th package of sanctions, which will put more pressure on Russian oil and decrease global oil supply. Italy, for example, is in talks with Libya.
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