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USD/CHF may decline
Information is not investment advice
The USD had been a safe haven when it comes to the US-Sino trade war. However, the situation has changed: now investors worry that trade conflict will hurt the American economy more than expected and thus increase their bets for the Federal Reserve’s rate cut this year. As the CHF is considered as a stronger kind of safe haven, we propose a USD/CHF short trade.
The pair fell below the 50-day MA (1.0070) and the line connecting January and March lows. If it goes below the 100-day MA (1.0024), the target will lie at 0.9955 (200-day MA, 50-week MA, and the line connecting 2018 and 2019 lows).
On Thursday, the 2nd of February, the Bank of England will publish its report concerning interest rates and inflation data for the Eurozone. Professionals and investors anticipate that Andrew Bailey’s lead team of policy makers will likely raise interest rates to 4%; the highest in over a decade, for the tenth time in a row.
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates? Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee had previously ended the year 2022 with a 50bps hike, and an indication from Powell, the committee chairman, that the Fed could consider raising interest rates by 75bps in the course of the year 2023.
Western countries are trying to find other options for oil and gas supplies after a 10th package of sanctions, which will put more pressure on Russian oil and decrease global oil supply. Italy, for example, is in talks with Libya.