Ichimoku Kinko Hyo CNH/JPY: The CNH/JPY pair is trading above the Kumo…
USD/CAD: technical long term
Information is not investment advice
The fundamental layout for USD/CAD suggests a continuous appreciation of the USD against the CAD. At least, this has been the case for the last 10 years, and it makes sense: in a normal state of expansion, the US economy is much stronger than the Canadian, and the latter depends on the US consumption. That’s why, although the currency pair has been going sideways in the channel 1.2960 – 1.3360 just as we see on the left side on the chart, it is a part of a larger uptrend.
At the same time, the heights at which USD/CAD has been trading in February-May (mostly above 1.3860) are not a “natural” baseline channel where USD/CAD would come following the long-term trend. Rather, it was pushed there “superficially” by fearful investors who were mostly trading risk-off during the fiercest months of the virus crisis. Now, as global infection rates decrease, there is no solid ground for such an inflated drive upwards for USD/CAD – hence the mid-term downturn we see. The latest bullish episode with a leap from 1.3360 to the current 1.3653 just confirms this assumption: USD got appreciated on the second wave fear; once it gets dissipated, it will get descend to get into a slower, almost sideways-looking ascension.
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates? Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee had previously ended the year 2022 with a 50bps hike, and an indication from Powell, the committee chairman, that the Fed could consider raising interest rates by 75bps in the course of the year 2023.
Western countries are trying to find other options for oil and gas supplies after a 10th package of sanctions, which will put more pressure on Russian oil and decrease global oil supply. Italy, for example, is in talks with Libya.
Last year was tough for the Japanese yen. USDJPY gained more than 30% over 2022, striking above 150 in October. While anticipation of slower Fed rate hikes pulled the pair below the 130 level at the start of 2023, the speculations over the destiny of BOJ’s yield control policy grabbed the attention of the Japanese assets in the middle of January. What lies ahead for traders of the Japanese yen?