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USD/CAD is capable of more
Information is not investment advice
USD/CAD made big moves during the Bank of Canada’s meeting yesterday. Still, the rally may not be over yet. Canadian central bank has given the market a lot of negative fuel, so the CAD may keep losing versus the USD. This means upside for USD/CAD.
The pair has formed a bottom in the 1.2950 area earlier this month (2019 support line). This week it has made a big advance above the 200-week MA and is currently testing the 100-week line in the 1.3160 area. Another resistance is at 1.3185 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the November-January decline). In the short term, corrections are possible, but the declines should meet support at 1.3140 and 1.3095 offering buy opportunities at these levels. Upside targets lie in the 1.3245 and 1.3300 areas.
On Thursday, the 2nd of February, the Bank of England will publish its report concerning interest rates and inflation data for the Eurozone. Professionals and investors anticipate that Andrew Bailey’s lead team of policy makers will likely raise interest rates to 4%; the highest in over a decade, for the tenth time in a row.
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates? Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee had previously ended the year 2022 with a 50bps hike, and an indication from Powell, the committee chairman, that the Fed could consider raising interest rates by 75bps in the course of the year 2023.
Western countries are trying to find other options for oil and gas supplies after a 10th package of sanctions, which will put more pressure on Russian oil and decrease global oil supply. Italy, for example, is in talks with Libya.