The G20 summit took place in Bali, Indonesia, on November 2022…
USD: ahead of the Fed's report
Information is not investment advice
This Wednesday, the US Fed announces the interest rate and the monetary policy report.
In terms of the rate itself, no change is expected until the year 2023 – the rate will be held steady at 0.25%. The question is what happens in 2023. In this regard, there are two camps: optimists (they maintain that there are grounds to plan for rate hike in 2023) and “cautionists” (they abstain from affirming that there is certainty to increase the rate).
What are the factors in favor of the US economic optimism?
- Strong economic recovery
In fact, that’s the only fundamental factor, and it’s pretty inconclusive as “strong” is a very relative quality prone to change quickly with time. Largely, it is based on the same optimism that see a rate hike as the most likely scenario in 2023.
What are the factors against the US economic optimism?
- The inflation rate is far from the target of 2%
- The labor market is far from full employment
Therefore, it is, basically, optimism (hopes) against realism (facts and figures). As the US Fed’s Chair Jerome Power is known for clinging to the latter, most observers believe that the coming Fed’s announcement is not going to provide much new information or interpretation of the US economic status - therefore, no major change of perspective is expected.
In such a neutral atmosphere, any subtle tone in the Fed’s commentary may move the USD in either direction. For example, the USD has been strong on the JPY lately, and hawkish outlook will support that strength lifting it to 109.50 and above. Alternatively, a dovish stance may bring it down to lower supports such as 108.00.
The deafening news shocked the whole world yesterday: the British Queen Elizabeth II died peacefully at the age of 96…
After months of pressure from the White House, Saudi Arabia relented and agreed with other OPEC+ members to increase production.
Greetings, fellow forex traders! Exciting news for those with an eye on the Australian market - the upcoming interest rate decision could be good news for Aussies looking to refinance or take out new loans. The Mortgage and Finance Association Australia CEO, Anja Pannek, has...
Hold onto your hats, folks! The Japanese yen took a nosedive after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) left its ultra-loose policy settings unchanged, including its closely watched yield curve control (YCC) policy. But wait, there's more! The BOJ also removed its forward guidance, which had previously pledged to keep interest rates at current or lower levels. So, what's the scoop? Market expectations had been subdued going into the meeting, but some were still hoping for tweaks to the forward guidance to prepare for an eventual exit from the bank's massive stimulus