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US inflation stands to the highest level since 1981

US inflation stands to the highest level since 1981

Information is not investment advice





Fibonacci Levels

 XAU/USD: Gold facing a further consolidation above 23.6% retracement area. Bulls have returned before critical inflation number.


Ichimoku Kinko Hyo

EUR/JPY: The pair is trading below the cloud. A downward pressure would lead the pair to exit further the cloud, confirming a bearish outlook.


US Market View

U.S. stocks are seen opening lower Wednesday, continuing the recent selloff ahead of the eagerly-awaited April inflation release. U.S. stocks are set to open lower again, attuned to the risk of a nasty inflation surprise that could puncture official complacency about price pressures that are showing up ever more broadly in the economy. U.S. stock markets resumed their sell-off at the open on Wednesday after figures showing that inflation accelerated even more quickly than feared in April.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the consumer price index rose 0.8% on the month, and 4.2% on the year, the highest annual rate of inflation since the eve of the financial crisis in 2008. Surging prices for second-hand cars and trucks accounted for around one-third of the monthly increase.

Investors counting on the Bank of Japan to put a floor under stock prices may be disappointed as the current rout likely falls short of new thresholds set in March for its exchange-traded fund (ETF) buying, findings unveiled by the central bank show. As part of efforts to make its massive stimulus sustainable, the BOJ in March ditched a pledge to buy ETFs at a set annual pace and now promises to step in only "when necessary."

The U.S. dollar hovered above a 2-1/2-month low versus major peers on Wednesday, as traders hung on to bets that the Federal Reserve would remain steadfast in its easy policy settings ahead of data expected to show a sharp rise in annual U.S. inflation.

Crude oil prices have bounced overnight, still supported by the draw in U.S. inventories reported by the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday. Government data are due at 10:30 AM, as usual.


 USA Key Point

  • US CPI may not tell us anything that we don't already know.
  • EU says to suspend budget rules until the end of 2022.
  • Eurozone March industrial production +0.1% vs +0.8% m/m expected.
  • Germany reportedly to lift quarantine restrictions for fully vaccinated travelers.
  • European Commission raises Eurozone 2021 GDP forecast from 3.8% to 4.3%.
  • Dollar advance trimmed to start the session.
  • China - Shanghai Comp up on the day, iron ore futures record high, coal limit up.




Can a recession be avoided? 

The pandemic continues hurting economic activity in China, the war in Ukraine is hitting the entire European economy, and the Fed's efforts to control inflation threaten to trigger a recession. 

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