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US Dollar under sustained pressure. What comes next ?

US Dollar under sustained pressure. What comes next ?

Information is not investment advice

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Ichimoku Kinko Hyo

USD/JPY: The pair is trading below the cloud. A downward pressure would lead the pair to exit further the cloud, confirming a bearish outlook.

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Fibonacci Levels

 XAG/USD: Silver facing a further consolidation above 61.8% retracement area. Bulls have returned recently.

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US Market View

U.S. stock markets are set to start the week higher, at close to new records, after Federal Reserve officials repeated at the weekend that the labor market needs to improve further before the central bank can reduce its bond purchases. U.S. stocks are seen opening higher Monday, continuing the recent positive tone on the first trading day of August as investors digest generally strong corporate earnings and a dovish message from the Federal Reserve. The major focus, however, has been on the corporate earnings season, which so far has been generally positive. Nearly two-thirds of the S&P 500 companies have reported second-quarter figures so far, and according to FactSet 88% have beaten consensus expectations.

 Lael Brainard and Neel Kashkari both warned of potential headwinds from the spread of the delta variant in the U.S., which reported 122,000 new cases on Sunday – the highest since February. Crude oil prices fell on signs of the Chinese economy slowing down, as localized anti-Covid measures started to weigh on fuel demand from commuters and tourists.

U.S. Senators reached agreement on the wording of a $ 1 trillion infrastructure bill, which may now be voted on in the Senate as early as this week. The bill has bipartisan support in the Senate, but is likely to be held up in the House of Representatives, where Speaker Nancy Pelosi has tied it to a separate $3.5 trillion spending package on issues such as fighting poverty and climate change.

 China’s official and Caxin PMIs added to evidence of the Chinese economy slowing in July, with the Caixin Manufacturing PMI falling to only 50.3, its lowest since April last year. The delta variant of the Covid-19 virus continues to spread in China. A total of 20 cities and 14 regions have now taken measures of varying strictness to isolate cases in an outbreak that began last week when a flight from Russia arrived at Nanjing airport with an infected passenger. German retail sales increased much more than expected in June following an easing of COVID-19 restrictions, supporting hopes for a consumer-driven recovery in Europe's largest economy.

USA Key Point

  • Oil down slightly to start the new week
  • Risk appetite keeps more positive in European trading.
  • UK July final manufacturing PMI 60.4 vs 60.4 prelim.
  • Eurozone July final manufacturing PMI 62.8 vs 62.6 prelim.
  • Germany July final manufacturing PMI 65.9 vs 65.6 prelim.
  • Dollar mildly softer to start the session.
  • Spain July manufacturing PMI 59.0 vs 59.5 expected.

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Bulls Are Coming Back

The US dollar index rose to 105.40 after the Fed’s 75-basis-point key rate hike, while the stock and the crypto markets fell. However, during the past few days, investors and traders returned to risk assets as they expect inflation growth to slow. Moreover, Jerome Powell, the head of the Federal Reserve, announced the Fed might start cutting the key rate by 2024, which is the most evident hint of an upcoming market reversal.

What to trade on June 20-24?

Last week was shocking!  The US dollar gained more than 2% against other currencies ahead of the 75-basis points rate hike by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday but dropped after the announcement…

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