Ichimoku Kinko Hyo CNH/JPY: The CNH/JPY pair is trading above the Kumo…
US Dollar steady ahead of payrolls later today
Information is not investment advice
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo
NZD/JPY: The pair is trading above the cloud. An upward pressure would lead the pair to exit further the cloud, confirming a bullish outlook.
XAU/USD: Gold facing an appreciation before key NFP number that will show the strength of US economic recovery. Gold stands at 23.6% retracement area.
US Market View
Economic optimism can be premature. Throughout the summer and fall it appeared that the US was on its way. More than half the lockdown job losses had been replaced by October, jobless claims had halved from July and pandemic cases were down everywhere in the country. Viral cases were soaring. California closed its economy. Payrolls had collapsed into losses in December and unemployment claims had climbed more than 200,000 by the first week of January. Nonfarm Payrolls are forecast to add 639,000 jobs in March, the highest total since last October. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 6% from 6.2% in February. Average Hourly Earnings are predicted to gain 0.2% on the month and 4.5% on the year. Average Weekly Hours should rise 0.1 to 34.7.
U.S. President Joe Biden's massive infrastructure proposal and the upcoming corporate earnings season could offer investors fresh insight on the sustainability of a rally that has taken stocks to all-time highs.
The S&P500 scaled 4,000 for the first time on Thursday and closed up 1.18% at 4,019.87, extending the benchmark index's gain to nearly 80% from lows in March 2020. The rally has been driven by unprecedented U.S. stimulus measures and expectations that widespread vaccinations against COVID-19 will spur an economic rebound.
USA Key Point
- USD/CAD moves sideways around 1.2550 despite surging crude oil prices.
- AUD/USD treads water above 0.7600.
- Cable at crossroads, Nonfarm Payrolls serve as make-or-break moment.
On Thursday, the 2nd of February, the Bank of England will publish its report concerning interest rates and inflation data for the Eurozone. Professionals and investors anticipate that Andrew Bailey’s lead team of policy makers will likely raise interest rates to 4%; the highest in over a decade, for the tenth time in a row.
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates? Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee had previously ended the year 2022 with a 50bps hike, and an indication from Powell, the committee chairman, that the Fed could consider raising interest rates by 75bps in the course of the year 2023.
Western countries are trying to find other options for oil and gas supplies after a 10th package of sanctions, which will put more pressure on Russian oil and decrease global oil supply. Italy, for example, is in talks with Libya.