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US Dollar reduces losses

US Dollar reduces losses

Information is not investment advice

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Ichimoku Kinko Hyo

EUR/JPY: The pair is trading below the cloud. A downward pressure would lead the pair to exit further the cloud, confirming a bearish outlook.

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Fibonacci Levels

 XAG/USD: Silver continuous to stand below 23.6% retracement area. Bearish pressure is growing before ECB and key inflation data.

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EU Market View

Asian shares edged higher but held their recent trading range on Thursday as investors focused on U.S. inflation data and the risk of an upside surprise that could prompt the Federal Reserve to start tapering its massive stimulus. Overnight, fixed income markets were the big movers, with some analysts pointing to a setback to more U.S. stimulus efforts, while others suggested a likely clearing out of short positions in U.S. government bonds ahead of the May CPI.

Markets are looking to the European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting later in the day where it will likely keep its policy guidance unchanged and publish updated euro area macroeconomic projections. Also later in the global day, expectations are that data will show the U.S. CPI accelerated 0.4% in May, taking the annual pace to 3.4%, according to a Reuters Poll. The dollar edged higher in early European trade Thursday, amid cautious trading with traders looking towards key U.S. inflation data and an ECB meeting for clues of future direction. Activity within the foreign exchange market has been limited all week, leaving major currencies mostly range-bound, with traders cautiously awaiting the release of the U.S. Labor Department's consumer prices data for May. 

Last month's report showed consumer prices increased by the most in nearly 12 years in April, and that called into question the Federal Reserve's guidance that current inflation pressures would be transitory and thus monetary stimulus should stay in place for some time yet.  Another strong report would increase the pressure on the central bank to act even further, potentially driving up U.S. Treasury yields to the benefit of the dollar. 

China's central bank governor said inflation is "basically under control", and monetary policy would be kept steady, in comments a day after concerns over inflationary pressures were fanned by data showing the fastest rise in factory-gate prices in 12 years."We must adhere to policy stability as a priority, and stick to implementing normal monetary policy," Yi Gang told a financial forum in Shanghai on Thursday, forecasting this year's inflation at below 2%.

 

 

EU Key Point

  • Treasury yields remain a focal point ahead of US CPI data release later today.
  • Germany reports 3,187 new coronavirus cases, 94 deaths in latest update today.
  • China FX regulator head says currencies market has shown obvious seasonality.
  • Iran / US talks to revive the 2015 nuclear accord will resume this weekend.
  • PBOC Governor Yi Gang says sees China's 2021 consumer inflation below 2%.
  • ECB monetary policy meeting preview - no material changes to monetary policy.
  • Commerce ministers of the US and China spoke on the phone, agreed to move forward.

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Inflation in New Zealand is the highest since 1990, edging to 7.3% in Q2 2022. The currency is under heavy pressure as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is trying to reverse the inflationary spiral. The week ahead will give us a valuable clue about the country’s monetary policy, and we are here to talk about that.

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