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US dollar once more is weakening further drop seems likely

US dollar once more is weakening further drop seems likely

Information is not investment advice





Fibonacci Levels

 XAG/USD: Silver continuous to stand above 23.6% retracement area. Bullish pressure is growing during the last hours.


Ichimoku Kinko Hyo

USD/JPY: The pair is trading below the cloud. A downward pressure would lead the pair to exit further the cloud, confirming a bearish outlook.


EU Market View

Asia-Pac stocks were mostly higher as the region took impetus from the firm performance in the US. European stock markets are seen opening higher Friday, helped by the rebound on Wall Street as Federal Reserve officials managed to ease investor jitters over growing inflationary pressures. All three major U.S. stock indexes notched solid gains on Thursday, bouncing back from three straight days of selling on worries that rising inflation will push the Federal Reserve into tapering its ultra easy monetary policies earlier than it is currently guiding. Federal Reserve officials have been out in force reiterating that price pressures from the reopening of the economy would prove transitory. Overnight, Governor Christopher Waller signaled that rates won't rise for quite some time, echoing comments from Lael Brainard and Richard Clarida earlier in the week.

In Europe, evidence of inflationary pressures on this side of the pond will come from Spanish April CPI data, although the expected annual gain of 2.2% is nowhere near the levels seen in the U.S..

Meanwhile, in the U.S. there were further signs that the country's economic recovery from COVID-19 is on track, with initial job claims for the week falling to a 14-month low of 473,000. U.S. inflation data for April, including the PPI, released earlier in the week was also higher than expected. The dollar took a breather on Friday but looks set to post weekly gains against a basket of currencies as investors weighed the risk of U.S. inflation rising faster than expected and prodding the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates sooner.

A strong reading on U.S. wholesale prices and jobless claims on Thursday failed to spark a renewed uptick in Treasury yields, which some traders put down to the market already pricing in a degree of inflation worries.

Oil prices edged lower Friday, continuing the previous session’s selloff amid a broad retreat in commodities that followed a sharp pick-up in consumer prices. Additionally, Colonial Pipeline, the largest fuel pipeline in the United States, resumed operations after an almost weeklong closure. Oil continuing Thursday’s 3% drop, as the number of COVID-19 cases in India remains near record highs and fuel demand worries continue. Meanwhile, a key network in the U.S. resumed operations after an almost weeklong closure. The number of COVID-19 cases in India, the world’s third-largest importer, topped 23.7 million cases as of May 14, according to Johns Hopkins University data.

 Looking ahead, highlights include ECB minutes, US retail sales, industrial production, Uni. of Michigan, Fed's Kaplan speeches.



EU Key Point

  • German virus 7-day incidence rate falls back below 100.0 in latest update.
  • Japan will use 512 bn yen from the emergency budget reserve to secure vaccines.
  • Japan's Prime Minister Suga press conference coming up (1100GMT) - more coronavirus restrictions.
  • US Sec State Blinken said the US will not leave Australia alone to face China coercion.
  • Reuters median forecast has the Federal Reserve to begin taper early in 2022.
  • XAU/USD to extend Thursday’s rebound ahead of key US data.
  • GBP/USD consolidates near 1.4050 ahead of US data.



How Will BoJ Meeting Affect the Yen

Hold onto your hats, folks! The Japanese yen took a nosedive after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) left its ultra-loose policy settings unchanged, including its closely watched yield curve control (YCC) policy. But wait, there's more! The BOJ also removed its forward guidance, which had previously pledged to keep interest rates at current or lower levels. So, what's the scoop? Market expectations had been subdued going into the meeting, but some were still hoping for tweaks to the forward guidance to prepare for an eventual exit from the bank's massive stimulus

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