Ichimoku Kinko Hyo CNH/JPY: The CNH/JPY pair is trading above the Kumo…
US Dollar mixed ahead of retail sales, jobless claims
Information is not investment advice
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo
USD/JPY: The pair is trading below the cloud. A downward pressure would lead the pair to exit further the cloud, confirming a bearish outlook.
XAU/USD: Gold facing a further consolidation below 38.2% retracement area. Bulls have returned recently.
US Market View
U.S. stock markets are set to open mostly higher after a mixed day on Wednesday on which tech underperformed value stocks. It’s a data-driven day in the U.S., with retail sales and industrian production data for March due, as well as the weekly update on jobless claims. Industrial production, due 45 minutes later, is expected to have rebounded 2.8% after a 2.2% drop in February, when a week-long cold snap across much of the south paralyzed the energy complex and a suite of energy-intensive industries.
initial job claims, which rose to 744,000 in last week’s release, are expected to have fallen to 700,000, a number that would still reflect a high continuing rate of layoffs in the economy, over a year after the start of the pandemic.
The Russian ruble fell as much as 2% and the country’s stock market fell 2.4% in response to news that the U.S. will introduce new sanctions on the country due to its involvement in the SolarWinds hack and in past election interference.
Crude oil prices retreated overnight after making substantial gains in response to a faster-than-expected draw on US crude stockpiles last week.The drop in inventories reported by the Energy Information Administration was nearly twice was was expected. Crude prices hit their highest in nearly a month in response, already supported by two upgrades to world oil demand this week from OPEC and the International Energy Agency.
USA Key Point
- The CAD is the strongest and the EUR is the weakest.
- Full slate of economic data due at the bottom of the hour.
- Dollar nudges a little higher awaiting US retail sales data.
- China Huarong said to be ready to repay S$600 million of bonds due at the end of the month.
- Treasury yields hold a little lower on the day so far.
- German health minister says still expects 20% of population to be vaccinated by end April.
- AUD/USD keeps the upside run going after slight pullback earlier in the day.
- EUR/USD keeps close to the mid-March highs, buyers looking to test 1.2000.
On Thursday, the 2nd of February, the Bank of England will publish its report concerning interest rates and inflation data for the Eurozone. Professionals and investors anticipate that Andrew Bailey’s lead team of policy makers will likely raise interest rates to 4%; the highest in over a decade, for the tenth time in a row.
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates? Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee had previously ended the year 2022 with a 50bps hike, and an indication from Powell, the committee chairman, that the Fed could consider raising interest rates by 75bps in the course of the year 2023.
Western countries are trying to find other options for oil and gas supplies after a 10th package of sanctions, which will put more pressure on Russian oil and decrease global oil supply. Italy, for example, is in talks with Libya.