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US dollar gains as  market expects a tapering from FOMC

US dollar gains as market expects a tapering from FOMC

Information is not investment advice

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Ichimoku Kinko Hyo

CHF/JPY: The pair is trading below the cloud. A downward pressure would lead the pair to exit further the cloud, confirming a bearish outlook.

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Fibonacci Levels

 XAG/USD: Silver continuous to stand below 23.6% retracement area. Bearish pressure is growing during the last hours and before Fomc.

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EU Market View

European shares hit a record high on Monday as investors bet on global central banks sticking to an accommodative stance on monetary policy even as the post-pandemic economic recovery gathers pace. After the European Central Bank last week stood pat on monetary policy, all eyes this week will be on the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy meeting for signs it was shifting from its stance that rising consumer prices would be temporary.

Any cues that policymakers might be digging in for a more sustained rise in inflation could spark fears of a sooner-than-expected unwinding of easy money policies and hurt stocks, analysts said.

The dollar was largely unchanged in early European trade Monday, with traders showing caution ahead of the latest two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve. The greenback saw some gains last week after the U.S. CPI jumped 5.0% year-on-year in May, the sharpest rise in more than a dozen years, raising fears the FED will be forced into reining in its ultra easy monetary policies earlier than expected. The dollar consolidated gains on Monday after posting its biggest weekly rise in six weeks as traders cut their bearish bets before a much-anticipated Federal Reserve meeting that might signal a change in the outlook for U.S. monetary policy.

The U.S. central bank begins a scheduled two-day policy meeting on Tuesday. Recent data pointing to a surge in inflation has raised concerns that price pressures following the post-COVID economic reopening could force policymakers into an earlier tapering of currency-depreciating stimulus.

While consensus expectations are the Fed will remain on hold until 2023, some believe the failure of the dollar to weaken in recent days despite inflation-adjusted U.S. bond yields softening further signals a broader caution among investors.According to a Bloomberg survey, some 40% expect the Fed to take its first step toward tapering its current $120 billion in monthly bond purchases in late August when Chair Jerome Powell hosts a policy retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Another 24% see that happening the following month.

 

EU Key Point

  • Heads up: UK PM Johnson to make statement on virus restrictions later today.
  • ECB's Holzmann: ECB in a 'dangerous zone' as inflation concerns rise.
  • ECB's Lagarde: It is too early to debate the end of PEPP purchases.
  • Japan April final industrial production +2.9% vs +2.5% m/m prelim
  • US President Biden and Russian President Putin will meet on Wednesday in Geneva.

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It’s Time to Look at New Zealand

Inflation in New Zealand is the highest since 1990, edging to 7.3% in Q2 2022. The currency is under heavy pressure as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is trying to reverse the inflationary spiral. The week ahead will give us a valuable clue about the country’s monetary policy, and we are here to talk about that.

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