Ichimoku Kinko Hyo CNH/JPY: The CNH/JPY pair is trading above the Kumo…
The highlight for markets today will be the FOMC meeting
Information is not investment advice
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo
GBP/JPY: The GBP/JPY pair is now trading within the cloud. A decisive movement to the north will fuel the pair to exit the Kumo. The next resistance is seen at the previous peak. On the other hand, a reversal back would push prices below the cloud with further bearish implications.
The highlight for markets today will be the FOMC meeting. The Federal Reserve is expected to hike the target range by 50bp, a view shared by consensus and market pricing, and signal that another 50bp rate hikes are also on the way this year.
The European Union is expected to announce its sixth round of sanctions against Russia today. According to diplomatic sources, new sanctions will target oil imports, Russian banks, and disinformation campaigns. The EU countries are expected to agree on a ban for Russian oil imports to be phased in by the end of this year. For an EU-wide decision, unanimity is needed, and hence, the deal is expected to offer exemptions for at least Slovakia and Hungary - the two countries that heavily rely on Russian oil.
With May 9 approaching, it’s believed that Russia is in a hurry to achieve some material results in the war in Ukraine to celebrate with the public. Regardless of the disappointing performance of the Russian army, Kremlin officials remain confident that Russia will secure control over the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
In the FX front it will be interesting to see the reaction of the EURUSD after the FOMC meeting as it looks likely to go even lower from here.
On Thursday, the 2nd of February, the Bank of England will publish its report concerning interest rates and inflation data for the Eurozone. Professionals and investors anticipate that Andrew Bailey’s lead team of policy makers will likely raise interest rates to 4%; the highest in over a decade, for the tenth time in a row.
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates? Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee had previously ended the year 2022 with a 50bps hike, and an indication from Powell, the committee chairman, that the Fed could consider raising interest rates by 75bps in the course of the year 2023.
Western countries are trying to find other options for oil and gas supplies after a 10th package of sanctions, which will put more pressure on Russian oil and decrease global oil supply. Italy, for example, is in talks with Libya.