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The big picture remains ultra-bearish for US Dollar

The big picture remains ultra-bearish for US Dollar

Information is not investment advice

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Ichimoku Kinko Hyo

GBP/JPY: The pair is trading above the cloud. An upward pressure would lead the pair to exit further the cloud, confirming a bullish outlook.

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Fibonacci Levels

 XAG/USD: Silver continuous to stand below a full time retracement area. Bullish pressure is growing during the last days.

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EU Market View

Asian equity markets kick off the week with tentative gains as the region takes its opportunity to react to last Friday's US jobs data disappointment and ramifications for Fed policy. US equity futures are stable at the reopen and remain near last Friday's records after the NFP miss supported the case for continued accommodation, while gasoline futures surge following the cyberattack which shut the Colonial Pipeline. European stock markets traded in a mixed fashion Monday, with the heavyweight miners helping the U.K. market outperform after Friday’s disappointing U.S. employment report kept the dollar weak and commodity prices strong. Friday’s U.S. employment report for April came in well below expectations, with NFP only rising by 266,000 during the month, after robust private payrolls data from the ADP and weekly initial claims numbers had lifted expectations to a one million-pay rise.

Attention will now switch this week to inflation data, although the mantra from Fed policymakers that the increase is due to temporary factors will carry extra weight following the jobs data. Wednesday sees the release of consumer price index figures for April, with the CPI number seen rising 3.6% on the year, a sharp rise from March’s 2.6%, and considerably above the 2% level the Fed usually seeks to limit price rises to.

The dollar edged lower in early European trade Monday, continuing its weakness after falling to a two-month low on the back of Friday’s disappointing U.S.  jobs report, which pointed to the ultra-low interest rate policy staying in place for some time. 

Calls grew for India to impose a nationwide lockdown as new coronavirus cases and deaths held close to record highs on Monday, increasing pressure on the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The 366,161 new infections and 3,754 deaths reported by the health ministry were off a little from recent peaks, taking India's tally to 22.66 million with 246,116 deaths.

 

EU Key Point

  • Cable gains to fresh highs since late February as buyers keep break above 1.4000.
  • UK April Halifax house prices +1.4% vs +1.1% m/m prior.
  • UK PM Johnson to make a statement later today on further reopening.
  • ECB's Lane: Eurozone economy to return to 2019 levels in spring 2022.
  • South Korea aims for 4% GDP growth this year, will spend more to ensure jobs are added.

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