Ichimoku Kinko Hyo CNH/JPY: The CNH/JPY pair is trading above the Kumo…
The big picture remains bearish for USD despite corrections
Information is not investment advice
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo
CAD/JPY: The pair is trading below the cloud. Downward pressure would lead the pair to exit further the cloud, confirming a bearish outlook.
XAU/USD: Gold is trading strongly higher and achieves a full retracement.
US Market View
The Dollar Index fell to its lowest since May 2018, dropping below 90 as progress on a fiscal stimulus package and the promise of loose Federal Reserve policy for years to come encouraged moves into risk assets and alternative assets. U.S. stock markets are set to open higher as negotiators in Washington and Europe grind toward agreement on a U.S. fiscal stimulus package and an EU-U.K. post-Brexit free trade agreement. After a disappointing 1.1% drop in retail sales in November, the market will be looking to the release of data on jobless claims, housing starts and building permits for any further signs of economic weakness. Crude oil prices also hit their highest level since March, with the weak dollar and U.S. government stockpile data helping them to shrug off fears about the near-term demand trajectory.
USA Key Point
- ADP Canada Nov employment +40.8K vs -79.5K prior
- US Initial jobless claims 885K vs. 818K estimate
- US November housing starts 1547K vs 1535K expected
- The NZD is the strongest and the USD is the weakest
On Thursday, the 2nd of February, the Bank of England will publish its report concerning interest rates and inflation data for the Eurozone. Professionals and investors anticipate that Andrew Bailey’s lead team of policy makers will likely raise interest rates to 4%; the highest in over a decade, for the tenth time in a row.
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates? Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee had previously ended the year 2022 with a 50bps hike, and an indication from Powell, the committee chairman, that the Fed could consider raising interest rates by 75bps in the course of the year 2023.
Western countries are trying to find other options for oil and gas supplies after a 10th package of sanctions, which will put more pressure on Russian oil and decrease global oil supply. Italy, for example, is in talks with Libya.