
The G20 summit took place in Bali, Indonesia, on November 2022…
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Societe Generale, a leading European investment bank, expressed optimism over the South African rand’s growth. Why? Firstly, the bank believes the ongoing global recovery will underpin the emerging market currency in the upcoming months. Secondly, the rand is usually influenced by credit rating downgrades. And since Societe Generale doesn’t expect any further downgrades for South Africa, the rand is safe from this risk. Finally, 2021 should bring many benefits for South Africa such as improving relations with China and greater inclusion in global trade.
"We are inclined to reload on tactically bullish ZAR positions as global markets move closer to finding a new Developing Markets rates equilibrium environment," says Societe Generale.
The South African rand is going to rise over the coming months. After the deep slump at the start of the coronavirus pandemic, the rand (as well as other emerging market currencies) has managed to recover in the second part of 2020 and keeps rising this year as investors foresee a strong economic recovery in 2021.
USD/ZAR has been moving sideways between 15.50 and 14.45. Now it has approached both the middle line of Bollinger Bands and the 50-day moving average of 14.90. Thus the pullback down is likely to occur. On the way down the pair may meet the support levels at the low of March 17 at 14.60 and the February low of 14.45. In the opposite scenario, if it breaks the strong resistance of 14.90, the way up to the high of February 26 at 15.10 will be open.
The G20 summit took place in Bali, Indonesia, on November 2022…
The deafening news shocked the whole world yesterday: the British Queen Elizabeth II died peacefully at the age of 96…
After months of pressure from the White House, Saudi Arabia relented and agreed with other OPEC+ members to increase production.
On Thursday, the 2nd of February, the Bank of England will publish its report concerning interest rates and inflation data for the Eurozone. Professionals and investors anticipate that Andrew Bailey’s lead team of policy makers will likely raise interest rates to 4%; the highest in over a decade, for the tenth time in a row.
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates? Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee had previously ended the year 2022 with a 50bps hike, and an indication from Powell, the committee chairman, that the Fed could consider raising interest rates by 75bps in the course of the year 2023.
Western countries are trying to find other options for oil and gas supplies after a 10th package of sanctions, which will put more pressure on Russian oil and decrease global oil supply. Italy, for example, is in talks with Libya.
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