Ichimoku Kinko Hyo CNH/JPY: The CNH/JPY pair is trading above the Kumo…
S&P: breakthrough or bounce
Information is not investment advice
While the US Presidential elections are nearing, and the public debate between Trump’s and Biden’s camps are carrying on, the S&P comes to test the September highs. What to do with that? Be careful.
Eventually, it will be a breakthrough: S&P will “have” to come back up to where it dropped from – to 3 580. But that is still pretty far away. So the question is whether this intermediary boundary range of 3 427 – 3 440 gets crossed in the nearest short term or later on. “Slightly later on” seems to be the right answer.
In this scenario, a slight bounce downwards to the area below 3 427 - somewhere at 3 400 – appears most probable. After that, a breakthrough upswing is likely to follow. So let’s test this hypothesis: watch the range of 3 427 – 3 440 for crossing. If it doesn’t happen until the weekend, it will mean that the downward bounce scenario is looming. If it does, it will mean that this hypothesis was wrong, and a straight breakthrough is coming – but make sure to verify it.
This week, there are a few high-probability trade ideas I'd like to recommend to you. Trading these setups, be sure to implement a proper risk management approach.
On Thursday, the 2nd of February, the Bank of England will publish its report concerning interest rates and inflation data for the Eurozone. Professionals and investors anticipate that Andrew Bailey’s lead team of policy makers will likely raise interest rates to 4%; the highest in over a decade, for the tenth time in a row.
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates? Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee had previously ended the year 2022 with a 50bps hike, and an indication from Powell, the committee chairman, that the Fed could consider raising interest rates by 75bps in the course of the year 2023.