I know we've had quite an amazing run these past few month, with over 78% accuracy in our trade ideas and sentiments, and thousands of pips in profits monthly...
S&P: 40% down?
Information is not investment advice
We are seeing now a retrace in the S&P – the decadent mood is once again reigning in the stock and Forex market. Investors are fearing the second wave of the virus and all other evils to come. Reasonable enough though – that is all out there among the possibilities, so the earlier the market factors in those disappointments, the better. But let’s make a purely technical analysis of the S&P and see if we can find a pattern.
On the below daily chart the recovery of the S&P after the disaster of February-March may be divided into three waves.
The first one started when the bottom was finally hit at 2,180 and peaked at 2,630 making a 450 points leap. After that, it retraced 180 points down to 2,450 erasing 40% of the gain. That is when the second bottom was being discussed – the people would not believe bulls would be powerful enough to sustain the upside.
The second wave launched at 2,450 and reached 2,960 making a 510-point leap. Then it erased 190 points dropping to 2,770 which is also nearly 40% of this wave. That is when observers were discussing the 50% level and were more confident there would be further rise although those professing the second bottom were still heard.
The third leg launched at 2,770 and peaked recently at 3,230 making another 460-point leap. As it was a complete recovery of the virus damage resulting to be a V-shape, observers got scared that it was too quick, too good, too unbelievable. Eventually, we are now at roughly 3,100. Is that it?
If the “methodology” behind the S&P’s movement stays, we are likely to see a 40% reduction of the leap that was made just like it appeared in the first two waves. In this case, we are likely to bottom out at 3000-3050 and then another wave up will launch. Let’s watch for the signs of a bullish reversal then and check that 40% down.
P.S. If those waves keep the pace, then the coming bullish leg will launch at 3000-3050 and make around 450 points upwards. That should complete in a couple of weeks so the end of June will show how precise our estimation is.
Futures for Canada's main stock index rose on Monday, following positive global markets and gains in crude oil prices. First Citizens BancShares Inc's announcement of purchasing the loans and deposits of failed Silicon Valley Bank also boosted investor confidence in the global financial system...
Investor confidence in the global financial system has been shaken by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse. As a result, many are turning to bearer assets, such as gold and bitcoin, to store value outside of the system without...
Greetings, fellow forex traders! Exciting news for those with an eye on the Australian market - the upcoming interest rate decision could be good news for Aussies looking to refinance or take out new loans. The Mortgage and Finance Association Australia CEO, Anja Pannek, has...
Hold onto your hats, folks! The Japanese yen took a nosedive after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) left its ultra-loose policy settings unchanged, including its closely watched yield curve control (YCC) policy. But wait, there's more! The BOJ also removed its forward guidance, which had previously pledged to keep interest rates at current or lower levels. So, what's the scoop? Market expectations had been subdued going into the meeting, but some were still hoping for tweaks to the forward guidance to prepare for an eventual exit from the bank's massive stimulus