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Ichimoku Kinko Hyo

AUD/JPY: The pair is trading below the cloud. A downward pressure would lead the pair to exit further the cloud, confirming a bearish outlook.

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Fibonacci Levels

 XAG/USD: Silver continuous to stand above 50% retracement area. Bullish pressure is growing during the last hours and it seems that bulls have decided to send price higher.

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EU Market View

European stock markets are seen opening lower Thursday ahead of the publication of the ECB’s strategy review, handing back some of the previous session’s gains after a weak lead from Asia. Stock markets in Asia were mostly lower Thursday, weighed by an extended selloff in tech shares over worries of a Chinese regulatory clampdown as well as rising Covid-19 virus cases.Back in Europe, the ECB is set to announce the outcome of a 18-month strategy review at 1100 GMT, followed by a news conference hosted by President Christine Lagarde at 1230 GMT. The central bank is expected to raise its inflation goal to 2%, a more explicit target than the previously used phrase, “below, but close to, 2% over the medium term”, as well as describing the target as symmetric.  The data slate in Europe includes German trade numbers, but the weekly U.S. unemployment figures will probably be the economic highlight. Initial job claims are seen falling to 350,000 last week, from 364,000 the previous week.

Elsewhere, oil prices edged lower, falling for the third consecutive session, amid continued uncertainty over future OPEC+ production levels after a dispute halted talks earlier this week. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, had been expected to boost production to balance the market given growing demand before a spat between senior members Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

The dollar maintained a strong tone in early European trade Thursday after the minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting indicated that the world’s most influential central bank is moving towards tightening monetary policy.

Traders had been waiting for the release of the FOMC from the Fed’s June meeting as this was the gettogether at which the central bank hinted at two rate hikes in 2023, and signaled a greater likelihood of a first raise coming as early as 2022.

 

EU Key Point

  • European equities start the day on a softer note.
  • USD/JPY looks towards 110.00 on lower yields, risk retreat.
  • Germany May trade balance €12.6 billion vs €15.4 billion expected.
  • Switzerland June unemployment rate 2.8% vs 3.1% prior.
  • Japan June economy watchers survey current situation 47.6 vs 38.1 prior.
  • USD/CAD eyes further upside break above 1.2500
  • AUD/USD falls to fresh lows for the year as risk aversion kicks in.

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USD/CAD Reversal Pattern

After a notable rally all the way to 1.28, USD/CAD dropped back to 1.2730 yesterday, confirming our outlook mentioned a few days ago about the need for a downside retracement before the upside trend resumes.

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When Twitter Inc. and Snap Inc. posted quarterly revenue that blew past analysts’ expectations, the results bumped up the shares of the two of their larger rivals: Facebook Inc. and Alphabet Inc.

EUR/USD Holding After ECB Decision

EUR/USD managed to rise for a very short period of time right after the ECB decision to as high as 1.1798 before declining and giving away its entire gains.

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