
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo CNH/JPY: The CNH/JPY pair is trading above the Kumo…
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These days may seem a little out of order to the oil price in light of the happenings between the US and Iran. This gives more reason to have a fresh look at the chart. But first, let us recollect the logic of the events.
On Friday, the news about the killed Iranian commander Soleimani reached the media. Markets were slow to react, then shocked, oil panicked.
On Sunday, the US President Donald Trump warned Iran against any retaliation; oil was still panicking.
On Monday, he said Iran never would have a nuclear weapon in reply to the surging note that the abandoned nuclear deal is the true background of the conflict; oil price was still falling down.
On Tuesday, Iran voiced out the coming retaliation; oil price kept falling.
Today, we hear that Iranian missiles hit the US airbases in Iraq; oil price panics again; President Trump reassures “all well” and says he would get back to us. Later during the day, we discover that none of the Americans or the Coalition forces were actually hit but the missiles. Moreover, we get reports that the retaliation strike was brilliantly managed by Iran to make sure it is big enough to satisfy the domestic vindictive mood among the Iranians but harmless enough to provoke the US to get back with a serious response.
No surprise, this flow of news forces the oil price to deviate from its’ “normal” trajectory. But does it actually?
A short-term picture gives a shaky impression indeed. After the door of $70 per barrel on Monday, Brent secures this position today at $71, which is unseen since May 2019. But then, it falls down as if nothing happened and breaks through all short-term support levels along with the 50-period, 100-period, and 200-period MAs. Only the Awesome Oscillator consoles with a seemingly reached bottom.
In the meantime, the long-term picture puts things in order. Yes, we see some “red volatility” at the end of the chart, but the trajectory did not deviate much from the general upward trend visible since October. Hence, even before the statement of the US President, we can have some certainty that the observed uptrend needs more to be challenged. Very likely, Brent oil price will secure its positions closer to the current level of $70 and then look for more strategic factors to follow.
The noise is the natural component of the market’s daily life. If you can trade the rumors, you have plenty of opportunities to do that, as these days have shown. Otherwise, make verified trade decisions, learn the techniques and follow the news.
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo CNH/JPY: The CNH/JPY pair is trading above the Kumo…
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY pair is now trading within the Kumo…
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair is now trading above the Kumo…
On Thursday, the 2nd of February, the Bank of England will publish its report concerning interest rates and inflation data for the Eurozone. Professionals and investors anticipate that Andrew Bailey’s lead team of policy makers will likely raise interest rates to 4%; the highest in over a decade, for the tenth time in a row.
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates? Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee had previously ended the year 2022 with a 50bps hike, and an indication from Powell, the committee chairman, that the Fed could consider raising interest rates by 75bps in the course of the year 2023.
Western countries are trying to find other options for oil and gas supplies after a 10th package of sanctions, which will put more pressure on Russian oil and decrease global oil supply. Italy, for example, is in talks with Libya.
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