EUR/AUD rose to 1…
Oil: no easy way back
Information is not investment advice
What are the forecasts for the oil market? Is there any hope of a recovery?
The International Energy Agency decreased its forecasts for the oil market on Thursday. Indeed, the coronavirus ruined the oil demand. Therefore, the Agency can’t give any optimistic guidelines. You might think that international borders have opened, and all the people, that waited for so long, broke out travelling. However, according to official data, there is still a low demand for jet fuel. Many countries have recently recorded fresh virus outbreaks, especially Europe and Latin America, where the coronavirus is spreading at a quite high speed.
Things are not so terrible as it may seem, OPEC+ members made all efforts to contain the prices at the current levels for almost two months. They have made enormous cuts of oil production, which pushed oil prices a little bit higher. Nevertheless, the prices are still well below pre-crisis levels, and they are unlikely to fully rebound soon.
Moreover, Libya’s port blockade will keep the North African’s crude oil out of the world market. Libya's oil export terminals are occupied. Therefore, it should help with the world’s supply glut. According to Bloomberg, Libya’s oil production dropped by 40% since July. It’s anticipated to be 1.2 million barrels in August. On the one hand, this blockade has made the devastating damage on the whole Libyan economy. On the other hand, it may decrease the world’s oversupply and push oil prices higher.
The Brent oil is slowly moving upward. There is the strong resistance at 200-day moving average at $46.50. It’s more likely the price will bounce off this resistance. However, if it manages to break it out, it will open doors to the key psychological mark at $50.00 at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Sooner or later it should reach this level. Support levels are $43.50 and $42.00.
Important! To trade Brent oil with FBS you need to choose BRN-20V.
US stock markets are set to open mixed as the post-Pfizer rally is reassessed, but cyclicals are still clearly outperforming the growth and momentum names that have notched the biggest gains during the pandemic.
Biden maintains the lead in crucial Pennsylvania. EUR/USD little changed since this morning.
Global stocks were mostly lower on Monday, following the weakness on Wall Street on Friday that stemmed from the weaker-than-expected retail sales report for December.
Most analysts claim EUR/USD will dip to 1.2000. After that, the pair should reverse to the upside.
Asian equity markets began the week cautiously after Friday’s losses on Wall St. Mixed Chinese GDP added to the tentative mood for stocks.