Equity markets climbed in Europe yesterday
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo CNH/JPY: The CNH/JPY pair is trading above the Kumo…
OIL: down to March levels
Information is not investment advice
Technical
We have seen WTI oil price drop to $35 right before the weekend breaking through local support levels. Today, it almost touched $34 bouncing back up to $34.5.
On the daily chart, these levels correspond to June lows and the pre-final-fall zone of March. Which factors are affecting the oil market now?
Fundamental
Just volatility
The oil market trembles on any “hard” news or period, be it good or bad – that’s just because it is more unstable than usual since the virus pushed it out of balance.
Second wave
The current hit of the virus is seen as more significant than many estimated it to be. That’s presses on the expectations of the oil demand recovery.
Joe Biden
Joe Biden is leading in the polls so far. Investors are factoring in this bigger probability into the oil prices now. His plan is to get Iran back to the nuclear accord. It comes with Iran’s 2mln barrels of oil added into the market daily. That will press on the price in the mid-term and will be a problem for OPEC.
On the other hand, Joe Biden plans to “transition” the energy sector from oil to renewable resources – that, in theory, may reduce US oil production, especially shale, and lift the prices in the long term to the joy of OPEC as well.
Conclusion
The oil price now reacts to a set of factors, and you cannot really know which factor comes to the front line at which moment, especially now (before/on the day of the election). After – at least, it will be clear, who the US president is, and one of the factors of uncertainty will be out. So be careful trading it – there may be more movement this week.
Similar
Brutal session in the equity markets yesterday
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY pair is now trading within the Kumo…
The U.S. economy added 390,000 jobs in May
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair is now trading above the Kumo…
Popular
Best Instruments to Trade This Week
This week, there are a few high-probability trade ideas I'd like to recommend to you. Trading these setups, be sure to implement a proper risk management approach.
European Currencies Ahead of the Banks' Statements
On Thursday, the 2nd of February, the Bank of England will publish its report concerning interest rates and inflation data for the Eurozone. Professionals and investors anticipate that Andrew Bailey’s lead team of policy makers will likely raise interest rates to 4%; the highest in over a decade, for the tenth time in a row.
Will the FOMC Surprise the Markets?
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates? Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee had previously ended the year 2022 with a 50bps hike, and an indication from Powell, the committee chairman, that the Fed could consider raising interest rates by 75bps in the course of the year 2023.
Choose your payment system
