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The New Zealand currency is not feeling very well on Wednesday as investors have obviously decided to take profit. NZD/USD met resistance around 0.6565 (61.8% Fibonacci of the July-October decline, top of the October-December bullish channel). The pair is now testing levels below the 200-day MA (0.6535). The line itself has a bearish bias. The meeting of the Federal Reserve will increase volatility. A decline below 0.6520 (50-period MA on the H4) will open the way down to 0.6496 (50% Fibonacci) and 0.6475/65 (100-period MA, November high). The ultimate support is at 0.6427 (support line). As for resistance, above 0.6565 it lies at 0.6585 (50-week MA, the long-term downtrend resistance line). This area will likely limit the upside if the USD gets in trouble.
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The pandemic continues hurting economic activity in China, the war in Ukraine is hitting the entire European economy, and the Fed's efforts to control inflation threaten to trigger a recession.
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