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NZD/USD: an interesting setup
Information is not investment advice
Price action in NZD/USD strongly resembles the so-called “cup and a handle” pattern on the D1. All in all, this pattern implies that the pair may rise as high as to 0.6565 (61.8% Fibo of the July-October decline) and 0.6590 (200-day MA). The close of October candlestick on the monthly chart was positive. Fundamentally, the pair will rise if the US and China make a breakthrough in trade talks and the USD remains weakened by the domestic figures. To confirm the upside, NZD/USD has to break above 0.6460 (100-day MA).
On Thursday, the 2nd of February, the Bank of England will publish its report concerning interest rates and inflation data for the Eurozone. Professionals and investors anticipate that Andrew Bailey’s lead team of policy makers will likely raise interest rates to 4%; the highest in over a decade, for the tenth time in a row.
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates? Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee had previously ended the year 2022 with a 50bps hike, and an indication from Powell, the committee chairman, that the Fed could consider raising interest rates by 75bps in the course of the year 2023.
Western countries are trying to find other options for oil and gas supplies after a 10th package of sanctions, which will put more pressure on Russian oil and decrease global oil supply. Italy, for example, is in talks with Libya.