GOLD: back to indifference
Is gold predictable now, at all? Let's consider some facts and observations.
NZD/JPY: three swings
Information is not investment advice
Sudden beauty
Rarely can you see such a symmetric cascade of several swings presented by a currency price. NZD/JPY seems to be in a moment of indecisiveness between the support of 70.000 and resistance 71.300.
Fundamentals
As you can see, this wavy sideways movement has started at the beginning of February – that’s when, instead of seeing the expected tip of the crisis, the media have announced that things were actually going worse with the Coronavirus. It was then when the investors realized that the situation is not going to be resolved that easy and that the damage will be more long-term. Gold also started rising in approximately the same period, which marked the market’s final “conviction” that Coronavirus would not leave soon.
Also, on February 12, the RBNZ Governor Orr announced the steady interest rate of 1%, which was somewhat reassuring for the NZD – that’s why it went into its second wave on that day. But after, the news kept becoming more and more grim with respect to the virus, that’s why NZD is running out of fuel to beat the JPY. The latter, in return, also has the same difficulty: there is no firm ground to appreciate, just contracting economy in Japan, and the frightening resilience of the Coronavirus expansion curve.
Technicals
Technically, the fluctuation of the price goes in a well-balanced way alongside the Moving Averages, while the Oscillator is currently at the zero-line. Together, these factors also favor continuation of the trend within the mentioned channel of 70.000 – 71.300
Conclusion
Therefore, unless and until the situation significantly changes on either side or in China, we are likely to see the same sideways movement. Maybe just not that beautiful.
Gaspar Markosyan
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