The G20 summit took place in Bali, Indonesia, on November 2022…
Non-farm payrolls: the forecasts
Information is not investment advice
The first Thursday of the month is going to be an unusual one, as the United States releases Non-farm payrolls at 15:30 MT time. The American Bureau of Labor Statistics moved the date of the monthly update on employment due to holidays in the United States.
Last month, US job data surprised traders. While analysts expected a fall in NFP by 7 750K, the actual level increased by 2 509K. At the same time, the unemployment rate declined to 13.3% (vs. the forecast of 19.4%). The only negative data was the average hourly earnings. The change in the price businesses pay for labor slid by 1% despite the forecast of a rise by 1%.
Analytical companies anticipate the US labor market to continue stabilizing. Let’s see the forecasts by some of the famous ones.
According to Goldman Sachs, the headline NFP increased by 4 250K in June with the unemployment level at 12.7%.
Merrill Lynch is anticipating less encouraging, but still promising results with the NFP increasing by 2 800K and the unemployment rate at 12.5%.
TD set its NFP estimates at +4 000K. The company notes, that the fundamental background is different this time compared to May’s one, as the cases of COVID-19 are surging.
Finally, Scotia predicts a rise of NFP by 4 000K. At the same time, it says that due to the fundamental changes and volatility, the actual figures may be lower but still in the positive territory.
Key levels for EUR/USD
At the moment, EUR/USD is trading near the 1.1280 level, close to the upper border of the descending channel. Positive NFP will pull the pair down towards 1.1230 (23.6 Fibo level). On the other hand, if the official data disappoints, EUR/USD will break 1.1280 and target the next resistance at 1.1330.
Key levels for USD/JPY
The volatility of the pair has been very low since the start of the day. At the moment, USD/JPY is well-supported by 107.4 (50-day SMA). A lower-than-expected outcome of NFP will pull the pair below this level to the next support at 106.9. A Strong NFP will encourage bulls to push the pair to the 107.9 level (100-day SMA).
The deafening news shocked the whole world yesterday: the British Queen Elizabeth II died peacefully at the age of 96…
After months of pressure from the White House, Saudi Arabia relented and agreed with other OPEC+ members to increase production.
This week, there are a few high-probability trade ideas I'd like to recommend to you. Trading these setups, be sure to implement a proper risk management approach.
On Thursday, the 2nd of February, the Bank of England will publish its report concerning interest rates and inflation data for the Eurozone. Professionals and investors anticipate that Andrew Bailey’s lead team of policy makers will likely raise interest rates to 4%; the highest in over a decade, for the tenth time in a row.
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates? Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee had previously ended the year 2022 with a 50bps hike, and an indication from Powell, the committee chairman, that the Fed could consider raising interest rates by 75bps in the course of the year 2023.